Milwaukee Bucks at Golden State Warriors – Oracle Arena at 03:30
An interesting matchup in the NBA on Friday night looms as the Golden State Warriors seek revenge against the Milwaukee Bucks for inflicting their first, and only, defeat of the season.
The Warriors incredible fairy story season beginning always looked in jeopardy with a 7-game road stretch to test them, but few could have predicted it would have been the Bucks that would end the sequence last Saturday.
The Warriors now have their chance of revenge and are a best price of 1/33 (1.03 / -3300) to beat the Bucks tonight. Not entirely attractive for a team that lost the reverse leg less than a week ago by 13 points.
The bookmakers have taken little value in that upset win and still rate the Warriors 18.5 point favourites tonight. Mainly due to a few additional obstacles in the Bucks way. Firstly, the Bucks caught the Warriors right at the back end of that 7 game road stretch, a tough ask for any team to remain hot. Secondly, Bucks points leader Greg Monroe is out with a knee injury. He top scored with 28 points in that win last Saturday and chipped with 11 rebounds and 5 assists. Thirdly, Klay Thompson was only at partial effectiveness for the Warriors since returning from an ankle. Since then, he looked more like his old self torching the Suns, putting up season high scoring points (43).
After ‘that’ win, the Bucks have not travelled well. A hideous 18 point loss to the awful Lakers was followed up with a 23 point drubbing to the mercurial Clippers. Additional to this, the Warriors are now well rested after only having one game in the last 5 days.
Even the most die-hard Bucks fan would struggle to imagine them doing the double over the Warriors but at 18.5 points, it’s a lot of spread to cover.
When run through a system, teams that achieved a money line upset of over 5.00 or bigger, then faced a rematch within 3 weeks with holding spread advantage of 12 or over, have run at 64% ATS over a sample of 120 games.
Despite the numerous number of advantages the Warriors hold against the Bucks, history says this is a few points too high on the spread, and despite all the problem the Bucks bring into the game, they are worth chancing to remain somewhat competitive and keep the gap under 18.
Handicap Betting Recommendation: Milwaukee Bucks +18.5 at 2.00
Prices correct at time of writing.
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