Lyon v Caen – Groupama Stadium at 20:00 GMT+1 at BT Sport
Lyon are embroiled in a fabulous fight with regional rivals Sainte Etienne in Ligue 1 for the third and final Champions League qualification place. Les Gones enjoy a four-point cushion with two fixtures to play after crushing Marseille 3-0 at the Stade Velodrome, two days after Sainte suffered a shock home defeat.
Head coach Bruno Genesio was thrilled with his team’s efforts on the French Riviera but refused to get ahead of himself after OL took a major step towards a top three finish. Speaking post-match, he said, “Are we in the Champions League yet? No. There are two games left, six points, and we must win next Saturday.”
OL produced the goods when it mattered most against Marseille and Genesio’s troops should be backed to cement their place in next season’s premier club competition with an uncompromising victory over struggling Caen. The home side can be supported with a -1.75 Asian Handicap at 1.83, a selection that would see us make money should Lyon win by at least two goals.
Lyon backed for big home victory
Les Gones haven’t always been a model of consistency in 2018/19. Genesio has come under plenty of criticism from supporters throughout the campaign but Lyon have tended to be strong operators regardless. Only runaway champions PSG can better the hosts’ return in the Expected Goals (xG) standings, as well as looking at shots from inside the penalty box.
During Genesio’s reign, OL have registered a 65% win ratio on home soil with 42% of matches won by a margin of two goals or more. Drilling down into performances against bottom-half stragglers and Lyon have W26-D4-L5 with 20/35 (57%) victories arriving by at least a two-goal margin, good enough to secure profit on Saturday evening.
Caen can be opposed
I’ve been opposing Caen all season and backed the Normandy club for relegation last June – if they manage to survive it will be an astounding feat. Incredibly, SMC have W4-D1-L2 of late to move out of the automatic relegation places despite their dreadful displays throughout the majority of the 2018/19 campaign.
Nevertheless, Fabien Mercadal’s men have earned their positive recent results against fellow scrappers and they’re unlikely to be capable of keeping Lyon out having lost six of seven trips to the top-eight and shipping twice or more in eight of 11 trips to teams in 12th and above.
Caen’s attacking numbers are quite frankly appalling. No team averages fewer shots from inside the penalty area, generates a worse xG figure or creates a lower xG from open play return. The visitors have been blanked in 19/37 (51%) away days since the start of last season and a similar showing could be on the cards when they head to the Groupama Stadium on Saturday.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Lyon -1.75 at 1.830
Preview by: @MarkOHaire.
Fresh from their big win over Marseille, a win against Caen will secure Lyon’s Champions League qualification. Make use of this Lyon v Caen Match Preview and betting insights with VOdds or through Eastbridge’s Skype betting now.