October 21, 2016

Liverpool v West Brom Asian Handicap Preview – Saturday 22nd October by @DarkDyson

Liverpool v West Brom – Anfield at 17:30 live on BT Sport 1

After my midweek Asian Handicap profit on the Champions League, it is back to the Premier League for profit this weekend.

Liverpool’s bid for domestic glory is unencumbered by European action, while visitors West Brom, seem happy just to avoid relegation.

Liverpool’s goal scoring machine was shut down on Monday, by Jose Mourinho’s masterclass, Tony Pulis should have been watching closely.

But, Pulis knows how to shut down and frustrate attacking teams, Tottenham only managed a draw against WBA last week.

Liverpool dreaming…

Jurgen Klopp has completely revitalised the Liverpool attack during his first year in charge at the sleeping giants.

They are the highest scoring Premier League team in this calendar year. Roberto Firmino, Philippe Coutinho, Saido Mane and Adam Lallana, all causing havoc for opposing defences.

Daniel Sturridge can’t even get in the side on a regular basis at the moment.

Playing attractive, attacking football has once again raised hopes amongst the fans, that this could finally be their year.

Somehow, Liverpool have not won the league title since the 1989/90 season, of course they have come very close on occasion.

Although, this season’s competition seems wide open at this stage, especially after Manchester City’s recent dip in form.

They will certainly need to find a way of breaking down more tactically astute opponents, like Manchester United, who held them in check last week.

Also, it is early days yet but new goalkeeper Loris Karius, looks like a disaster waiting to happen. Most of the time he looks like he has never seen a ball crossed into the box before!

Baggies evolution…

As mentioned earlier, West Brom are well versed in dealing with the big teams and attacking football.

However, after some interesting purchases this summer, Tony Pulis has more flair players in his team than you might expect.

The signings of Matt Phillips and Nacer Chadli, gives the Baggies a lot more pace and goal power than before.

Chadli has hit the ground running with four goals in his first five games, suddenly WBA have real goal threat!

Somewhat predictably this has come at a cost, their defence is still decent. But with just two clean sheets in eight games, Pulis will be desperate to find a solution to this problem.

Stats, data and prices…

Liverpool line up for this match at around 1.27 to win in 90 minutes, while West Brom are 11.40 outsiders.

There has been 176 home favourites in this price range over the past three seasons of the Premier League. Of those short priced teams, 129 (73.29%) of them won, claiming all 3 points.

Based on that recent historical win percentage, Liverpool’s price is about 10 ticks too short for my liking already.

In terms of goals, 109 (61.93%) of these matches ended with three or more goals. While the average Over 2.5 Goals price was just 1.63, as you might expect.

Liverpool’s home record in this range is, P23 W15 D5 L3 with 49 goals scored and 24 conceded. I don’t need to tell you, that this is not a great home record when priced as such a short priced favourite.

On top of this, they only covered their Asian Handicap line in 5 of those 15 victories.

West Brom’s away record in the range reads, P18 W4 D4 L10, they scored 17 times, while conceding 33 times.

Their Asian Handicap results in these games are impressive, you would only have lost your full stake 4 times!

Of course Klopp’s team are more than capable winning comfortably, as both Leicester & Hull will attest to.

Asian Handicap & Total Goals…

Liverpool’s short price leaves them with a -1.75 Asian Handicap line to cover this Saturday, but you might have guessed. With the line currently priced at 2.09, there is categorically no value in backing them to cover it.

The Asian Total Goals line for the game has been set at 3, which certainly comes from Liverpol’s scoring and the Baggies lack of clean sheets.

Based on the data, this is a fair line but I would not put anyone off backing Under 3 Goals at 1.91.

Personally, I believe Pulis will follow Mourinho’s lead and set out to frustrate their hosts early on. If they silence the Kop by not conceding an early goal, they are good enough to avoid a heavy defeat.

Who knows, their new look attack could see them grab a vital goal, giving us even more to cheer about!

Plus, with the outstanding value on the visitors, who are well versed in keeping similar games close. I am more than happy to back the underdog’s to land me the spoils on Saturday evening.

Asian Handicap Recommendation: West Brom +1.75 at 1.87

Prices correct at the time of writing.

By @DarkDyson, all stats taken from his data sheets.

Eastbridge Soccer Betting Broker, Asian Handicap specialists.

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