Saturday’s evening Premier League kick off see’s champions Leicester travel to Anfield to face Liverpool. The hosts come into the match as strong favourties with the foxes underestimated once again. This gives us an edge and provides us with some value on the Asian Handicap market.
The trends and stats do appear to favour Liverpool, but it does not justify their price of 1.67.
The Red’s were one of just 2 sides that defeated Leicester last season, winning this fixture 1-0. However, they were well beaten 2-0 at the King Power in their last meeting in February.
Leicester’s recent record at Anfield supports Liverpool’s favourtism as well. They are without a win in their last 5 visits, losing 4 times. Three of those four losses though were between 2000 and 2004.
One stat hard to argue with, is that Liverpool have defeated the reigning EPL champions more than any other side. And the last title holders to beat the Reds at Anfield were Man Utd 9 years ago.
Jurgen Klopp’s team have had a mixed start to the campaign though this season. They have W1-D1-L1 but you could argue they were the better side in their draw against Spurs and loss to Burnley.
Defensively though, they have been poor, conceding 6 times in 3 matches. The worst record in the league along with Stoke and Watford.
The 5 goals they have scored this season keeps them as top Premier League scorers of 2016. It has taken them 55 attempts to register those 5 goals this term though, a very poor conversion rate.
Leicester themselves have also had a mixed start, opening their campaign with a loss to promoted Hull City. They followed that up with a solid defensively display against Arsenal drawing 0-0. Last time out they registered their first win of the season, defeating Swansea 2-1.
Since their loss to Liverpool on Boxing day last year, Leicester kept 12 clean sheets in their final 20 matches of last season. Losing N’Golo Kante makes them more vulnerable at the back and their defence misses his assured presence. They are still very strong defensively and should limit Liverpool’s chances to fewer than they’ve had in their first 3 matches.
Leicester have amassed more points in 2016 than any other Premier League side and it won’t be a surprise for them to get a positive result here.
I’m anticipating an open match, with goals on the cards. Over 2.5 goals offers some value at 1.81.
As they were all of last season, the visitors are hugely underestimated. At 5.68 they are over priced and although 3 points will be difficult to obtain at Anfield, a draw is very realistic.
With a +0.75 advantage on the Asian Handicap at odds against, Leicester are my recommendation.
Asian Handicap Recommendation: Leicester +0.75 at 2.09 & Over 2.5 goals at 1.81
Prices correct at time of writing.
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