Levante v Alaves – Estadi Ciutat de València at 12:00 GMT live at La Liga TV
Levante were amongst the most entertaining sides to watch in La Liga last season as the 125 goals total across their 38-games was only second to the 126-goal tally in Barcelona’s fixtures. And Los Granotas are following a familiar pattern this term with plenty of entertainment and excitement.
Paco Lopez’s men were the league’s fourth top goalscorers in 2018/19 with as many as 12 different players netting more than once. As hosts, only three teams averaged more goals per-game, and despite a relatively low-key opening stanza, Levante have found their feet since late October to settle into mid-table.
Los Granotas’ issues remain at the back. Levante leaked the second-most La Liga goals last term, although Expected Goals (xG) suggests the porous backline could and should have conceded at least 13 goals more. It’s therefore no surprise to see the Valencia-based club again struggling to keep their sheets clean.
Attack is often the best form of defence for Levante – only five teams have won more league games than Saturday afternoon’s hosts– and since reverting to their offensively-minded style, Paco Lopez’s men have proven a real menace, especially at their Ciutat de Valencia base where Barcelona were also downed.
Los Granotas also led Valencia by two goals in the derby before running out of steam. Nevertheless, the hosts look underrated to garner another positive result when lowly Alaves arrive this weekend. The counter-attacking specialists have W16-D9-L8 here under Paco Lopez – a marvellous 48% La Liga win rate.
Despite that excellent return – plus Alaves’ dismal W7-D4-L17 away record since the start of last season (including a 61% loss rate) – the layers have given Levante just a 47% chance of succeeding. Paco Lopez’s posse might underwhelm on underlying metrics but they’re worth supporting in this situation.
Alaves have been beaten in seven of their nine games as guests in 2019/20, conceding an average of 2.56 goals per-game on the road whilst also generating one of the lowest Expected Goals (xG) outputs in the division when viewing only open play opportunities. The visitors are easily opposed here at the prices.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Levante -0.50 at 2.070
Preview by: @MarkOHaire