RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt – Red Bull Arena at 17:30 live on BT Sport 3

Analysing the market’s current perception indicates an implied probability of 59.17% being attached with second place Leipzig. This situates Ralph Hasenhuttl and staff within the parameters of host teams possessing an implied probability of between 50.00% and 59.88%.

Furthermore, 298 of the previous 583 games (51.11%) that have been attached with similar market conditions have resulted in three or more goals occurring. Correspondingly, by recycling the data presented upon the current over 2.5 goals market, a significant amount of value becomes apparent. Admittedly, with the current implied probability of 48.07% being presented.

Through observing the previous 583 games that have involved a host team with an implied probability of between 50.00% and 59.88%, a total of 1010 goals has been generated by the host team. As a result, producing an expected goal average of 1.73. Additionally, 307 of the previous 583 games (52.66%)  have resulted in both teams finding the back of the net. Therefore, directly playing a significant role in the 1551 goals that have been scored within those 583 games. This equates to an expected goal average of 2.66 for this late afternoon match-up.

Similarly, by analysing the market’s perception of Eintracht Frankfurt an implied probability of 16.12% becomes evident. As a result, this situates the resilient Frankfurt within the parameters of travelling teams possessing an implied probability of 24.93% or less. Subsequently, by analysing the previous 1291 games that have included a travelling team with an implied probability of 24.93% or less has resulted in 712 of those games (55.15%) experiencing three or more goals. In comparison to the market’s current perception of over 2.5 goals occurring, value certainly seems apparent.

Furthermore, on the occasions in which a travelling team has possessed an implied probability similar to that attached with Frankfurt, an average of 1.97 goals per game has been conceded. A less than impressive average of 0.85 has also been gained. Although with that being said, in the previous 1291 games a total of 3638 goals have been witnessed. This therefore generates an expected average of 2.82 goals for this top four clash.

In conclusion, by combining the two individual sources of data extracted from both teams’ current implied probability, an overall probability of 53.13% can be attached with over 2.5 goals occurring in this game. Therefore, with the market’s current perception of over 2.5 goals at 48.07%, an underestimated stance appears to of been established.This produces an attractive edge and a beneficial entry point from within this intriguing Bundesliga match-up.

In addition, by producing an overall average from the xG data presented, an xG rating of 2.74 can be expected, with Leipzig favoured to obtain the larger percentage.

Asian Handicap Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals at 2.13

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @gscurftrader.

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