Lazio v Roma – Stadio Olimpico at 17:00 live on BT Sport 1
On Saturday followers of our Asian handicap betting insights picked up a profit from our Serie A preview thanks to Juventus beating Napoli 3-1 and today we preview another huge match in Serie A, as Lazio host local rivals Roma in Derby Della Capital!
Each league has its local Derby matches but not many can live up to the Rome one for sheer hatred between the fans and the constant drama that always surrounds the fixture. There have been plenty of red cards, horror tackles, riots and even a few deaths as fanatic supporters known as ‘Ultras’ clash on a regular basis.
Today the level of intensity of both players and fans alike is set to be even higher than usual, as ‘visitors’ Roma are just a single point ahead of Lazio in the Serie A table. Plus, there is also the small matter of Lazio’s Champions League qualification still to be decided.
With Napoli just three points adrift of them and hosting the Biancocelesti on the final day of the season, it is vital that Stefano Pioli’s team wrap up qualification by securing at least a point this evening and avoid the need to take something at Napoli on Sunday.
Because of their inferior head to head record with Napoli, should Lazio lose both these remaining fixtures they would be overhauled by Rafa Benitez’s team for the final Champions League spot.
Despite the Derby atmosphere today, Pioli will be desperately trying to keep his players focused on the main objective of Champions League qualification rather than going all out for the win and so it would be no surprise to see Lazio use a more defensive approach today, especially in the final third of the match should the score line still be level.
Roma’s title challenge never really got off the ground this season but a win over sworn enemies Lazio this evening will secure second place and avoid the qualification round for the Champions League competition next year.
However, Rudi Garcia will also be wary that his team also cannot afford to lose tonight because that would see Lazio leapfrog them in the table, so a draw might well suit both managers, if not the fans.
Lazio and Roma’s form in the last eight games has been virtually identical with both teams winning four, drawing two and losing two of those matches. The only thing separating the two Rome sides is the fact that Lazio have scored two more goals during those games.
Lazio have not been great in home matches against the top teams in the division this season, they were beaten by Juventus, Napoli, Genoa and Inter, but recorded handsome victories over Fiorentina and Sampdoria.
Roma have also struggled when visiting other top sides this year, in fact they have only registered one win when playing away against teams in the top half of the table. More reasons why a draw would be a good result for both sides this evening.
When looking at the markets today, it is clear that the bookies also believe a convenient draw is the most likely outcome. Our algorithm prices the draw at 3.70 but the best odds you will find on the match to end level is a ridiculously short 2.70!
The Asian handicap betting line for this crucial clash is set at a reasonable 0.25 but with all the value on the home team, it is just a question of if they have the stamina left in them after a gruelling season to drag themselves over the finishing line.
Lazio were slightly unlucky to lose the Coppa Italia final last Wednesday night and the extra time defeat to Juventus will have taken a lot out of Pioli’s men. However, with Champions League qualification in sight, value in their price and the Derby atmosphere to drive them on, we are happy to back Lazio tonight.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Lazio -0.25 at 2.20
Prices correct at the time of writing.
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