Lazio v Bologna – Stadio Olimpico at 14:00

Identifying markets which are not in coordination with the implied probabilities attached to teams, is easier than most might think. Lazio have been awarded an implied probability of 64.51% or odds of 1.55. Human instinct is greed, which allows opportunities when the markets aren’t cooperating. At first glance, the general public will either go one of three ways (only two are relevant to this preview). Leave it alone, back Lazio or back Lazio on the handicap which filters down through too the +2.5 goals market, causing pressure on the current price and inevitably shortening that price.

The current implied probability attached with Lazio, have them situated within a filter which has proven to be most profitable for +2.5 goals enthusiasts. Hence, why based upon the data generated from teams within this filter, suggest at this early stage that value can be obtained. The market’s current perception, with +2.5 goals is 50.00%. However, data extracted from past performance indicate that the implied probability should be in the region of 59.16%.

Which on first observation offers a substantial margin in favour of the punter. However to further present the case, additional data can be extracted from a number of stable sources. Therefore by analysing the implied probability attached to Bologna, additional evidence can be presented.

Bologna currently have an implied probability of 13.88% or odds of 7.20. Which situates them within the filter of away teams possessing an implied probability of 24.93% or less. A filter compatible with that of Lazio, which in addition generates profitable entry points. The performance rating produced for +2.5 goals is 54.46%. Which in comparison to Lazio’s filter isn’t as dominant, but still produces a substantial margin over the current probability on offer.

Generating an average probability from the two presented sources of data, will indicate an early estimate to whether the +2.5 goals market possesses value at the current price on offer. Therefore, by combining the two sources of historical data an average of 56.81% or odds of 1.76. Clearly implementing early signs, that value can be obtained from the +2.5 goals market.

Nevertheless, using a third and final additional source can concrete the true probability of +2.5 goals occurring within this game. By implementing the data extracted from the +2.5 goals starting price, provides that the third source of data is just as influential as the first. Hence, that the performance rating generated from the current +2.5 goals price is 50.45%.

In conclusion, by averaging the three sources of data. The true probability for +2.5 goals occurring in this game would be 54.69% or odds of 1.82. Therefore proving that the implied price currently on offer is overpriced and undervalued, leading to a profitable entry point. For this reason given the data presented, in comparison to the price widely available I can recommended +2.5 goals at 2.00.

Asian Total Goals Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals at 2.00

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @gscurftrader.

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