Juventus v Monaco – Juventus Stadium at 19:45 live on Sky Sports 1

Juventus are the shortest priced favourites in the 1st leg of the Quarter Finals this week at 1.5 as they have dominated Serie A, not losing at home domestically and in Europe this season. The Old Lady won’t be taking Monaco for granted though as Arsenal did at the Emirates in the last 16 where the Gunners were well beaten 3-1 before going out on away goals.

The Bianconeri have a 12 point lead at the the top of the Serie A as they look to win the Scudetto for the fourth consecutive season. Their home record reads, W13 D2 L0, scoring 36 and conceding just 7 goals in the process. They have kept a clean sheet in their last 3 at Juventus Stadium and will be fairly confident of keeping Monaco at bay. The French side have only scored 7 goals this campaign, the lowest total of the quarter finalist with the average goals scored by other 7 teams at 17.6 goals.

What the Les Rouges et Blancs lack in attack, they more than make up for defensively, conceding just 4 times in their 8 Champions League games, the best defensive record of the quarter finalists. They also boast the best defence in Ligue 1, conceding 22 in 32 matches so far this season. They currently sit in 3rd place in the league a point above Marseille as the look to finish in the top 3 to secure another year in Europe’s elite competition.

Juventus are rightly favourties for the match and to qualify (1.3), but the price once again is too short which gives us some value on Monaco on the Asian Handicap market. Monaco’s recent away record in the UCL is mediocre,  W4, D1, L5, but defeated Arsenal and Bayer Leverkusen in their last 2. Historically, if beaten, they keep it tight, as you would expect with a team that focuses on defence. They have only lost by 2 goals or more on two occasions in their last 19 Champions League away matches which makes the +1.25 at 1.83 value.

Monaco may well look for an away goal as they did against Arsenal, they only scored 4 in their 6 group matches but the need for away goals wasn’t important at that stage. When it mattered, they delivered. Many are expecting a low scoring match but the 2.65 on Over 2.5 goals is hard not to get involved with at such a huge price. However, I will stick with Monaco to stay within a goal, with a good possibility of walking away with a draw for my official recommendation

Asian Handicap Recommendation: Monaco +1.25 @ 1.83

Prices correct at time of writing.

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