Borussia Monchengladbach v Man City – Borussia-Park at 19:45 live on BT Sport 2
Man City travel to Gladbach this evening knowing a win would secure a path to the last 16 of the Champions League. A draw may even be enough for the Citizen’s, but I expect Guardiola to enter the match positively and wrap up qualification tonight. They offer some value on the Asian Handicap market, although a tougher match is expected than the reverse at the Etihad.
Gladbach were thumped 4-0 when the two sides met in Manchester on matchday 1 before losing 2-1 to Barcelona, giving themselves a mountain to climb. They defeated Celtic in Glasgow 2-0, picking up their first points of the competition, but were held by the Scottish champions at home last time out.
With just 4 points from their opening 4 matches, only a win tonight will keep the German’s in the competition. Any other result and they will be competing against Celtic for a place in the Europa League.
This is the second season in a row that BMG have been drawn against City in the group stages, losing all 3 previous meetings at an aggregate score of 10-3.
They have an average record against Premier League sides in European competition, W5 D4 L6 from 15 matches. Their home record is good though, winning 5 of their meetings with English sides from 7, losing just once. However, that loss did come against City in the UCL last season.
When it comes to the Champions League though, Gladbach have won just 1 of their 5 home matches in the competition, D2 L2. Their recent form is also poor, failing to win any of their last 4 outings, losing their last 2. They sit 13th out of 18 in the Bundesliga, struggling on all fronts this season.
It’s been a bit of a rollercoaster in the UCL so far for the Citizens. They opened their campaign with a solid 4-0 win over Gladbach but dropped points in a 3-3 draw with Celtic before being humbled 4-0 by Barcelona at the Camp Nou. However, their position in group C is much stronger as a result of their excellent 3-1 win over the Catalan’s last time out.
After a period in which City picked up just 2 wins from 8 EPL and Champions League fixtures, they are now undefeated in their last 4, W3 D1. They are just 1 point off the pace in the Premier League and a win tonight, qualifying for the last 16 for the 4th consecutive season will only boost morale ahead some tough domestic fixtures to finish off 2016.
They are the form team and deserve to be favourites (1.81), however their form against Bundesliga teams should be considered. In 18 fixtures against top division German sides, they have won just 9, losing 7 times. From their 9 away trips to Bundesliga sides, they have registered just 3 wins, losing the other 6.
Asian Handicap & Total Goals
Despite their record against German opposition, I expect Man City to get the job done in Gladbach this evening. After a blip throughout October, they are looking back to their best whilst BMG are struggling for form this season. The Asian Handicap line is set at -0.75 for the visitors at even money, which I make a value bet.
There is also some value on the goals market. Man City have conceded in each of their last 5 trips to Germany and have conceded 7 in their 2 UCL road matches this season. In fact the Citizens have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 9 away matches in the competition.
I expect the hosts to get on the score sheet here, but City to prevail and book their place in the last 16. Over 3 goals at 1.99 is my second recommendation.
Asian Handicap Recommendation: Man City -0.75 at 2.0 & Over 3 goals at 1.99
Prices correct at time of writing.
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