Germany v Poland – Stade de France at 20:00 live on ITV
Round two of the group phase, sees the two winners from the first round matches clash in a game which, will decide who tops Group C. Naturally, the World Champions Germany, are the favourites to win in Paris tonight, but Poland will certainly not be an easy team to beat.
Joachim Low has deflected some of the attention away from his players, with his rather unusual and completely disgusting habit, of sniffing his fingers after having shoved his hand down his pants!
This could be a good thing for the squad though, because despite winning their opening game 2-0 against a fairly limited and uninspired Ukrainian side, the German’s did not really impress me. Sure, they had loads of possession as expected and Toni Kroos looked back at his best, but something was missing.
For me Mario Gotze should not be anywhere near Low’s starting eleven, especially not playing up front or as a false nine. Considering his personal stats since joining Bayern Munich, I am surprised he even made the squad.
I noted in my Outright Winner preview that the loss of Miroslav Klose up front, would be hard for the German’s to overcome and it took a centre back scoring from a free kick, along with a counter attack in the last minute, for them to seal victory on Sunday.
At the time of writing, I do not know if Low will stick with the out of form Gotze or not, but his options to replace him are basically limited to playing Thomas Muller as a false nine or calling on 30 year old Mario Gomez to play up top.
I suspect it could be the former of those two options, because Gomez has never really convinced at this level and Muller, always delivers goals at this level. Plus, they have more options to cover Muller’s midfield role, if he is pushed further forward.
Meanwhile, Poland will be desperate to prove that their win over Germany in qualifying was no fluke. Although, to be fair to Germany, they were the easily the better team on the day.
However, Adam Nawalka’s team started the tournament with a solid performance in a 1-0 win over Northern Ireland. In truth, it really should have been a lot more than just a single goal victory as Poland amassed 18 shots during the game.
Match winner, young Arkadiusz Milik, was particularly dangerous for Poland and he really sould have scored at least one more goal himself. With Robert Lewandowski in front of him, this dynamic forward line is sure to cause Germany some problems at the back.
Germany are priced up at around 1.60 for the win here, along with a, +/-1 Asian Handicap line and straight away that line is tempting me to back the underdogs.
The Asian Handicap Total Goals market for this match has the line at 2.75, which looks fair enough to me, as I would certainly expect both teams to score in this match and both should be going all out for the win as well.
Germany are the better team here and if they manage to sort out a coherent plan for their weaknesses, they will go deep into this tournament as expected. But, four days is not long to resolve these issues and with that in mind, I am happy to back the Polish team here, where only a defeat by two or more goals will see us lose our stake.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Poland +1 at 1.9
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