The reigning World Cup champions open up their 2018 campaign with a tricky looking game against Mexico. Yet it’s of no surprise to see them near the head of the ‘Outright’ market, as Die Mannschaft have reached the semi-final stage in their previous six major tournaments and given the strength-in-depth they currently possess, it’s almost expected of Joachim Low to guide this group of superstars deep into this year’s competition.
Germany v Mexico
The markets current perception of Germany indicates an implied probability of 65.78%, which would suggest that Mexico will prove to be the German’s toughest test during the group stage. Similar to Les Bleus, the strength-in-depth each side possesses is truly remarkable and that is echoed from within the markets implied probability average from their three group games. France currently possess an average implied probability of 69.44% from their games against; Australia, Peru, and Denmark. An element which appears apparent in the market’s perception of Germany’s three group games, with Joachim Low’s side possessing an average implied probability of 70.92%.
Is there any beneficial advantage to the current markets perception?
Extracting the historic market data from Germany’s previous encounters, we may be able to establish probabilities on the lines that have been set in the current markets for Germany versus Mexico. As a result determining which side of the market, will prove to be the correct one.
Czech Republic v GermanyNorway v GermanyGermany v Slovakia
The implied probability currently attached with the -1.0 Asian handicap line appears significantly inferior to previous market data. Analysing the three previous occasions in which the market’s perception of Germany was similar to the one currently being offered, indicates a rather significant discrepancy in prices. The current implied probability for the -1.0 handicap line is 52.91%. However, by extracting an average price from the three market examples provided, the closing implied probability is in the region of 58.13%. A significant difference from the market’s current perception. However, the ‘Over/Under’ market may be responsible for the discrepancy within the market. The Over/Under’ line has been superior in all three of the market examples, which may be the reason the current pricing on the Asian handicap line appears out of sync. If that proves to be the case, the next question that must be answered…
Is the current ‘Over/Under’ line, correct?
Identically by utilizing Mexico’s historic market data, in the same fashion as we proceeded with the German market data. The question whether the current lines set by the market are correct, will be answered.
Belgium v Mexico
Chile v MexicoBrazil v MexicoThe Brazil/Mexico closing market is that of the one we will observe on the verge of the scheduled kickoff time for Germany against Mexico. Given the current implied probabilities attached with both Germany and Brazil in the ‘Outright’ market, it seems unlikely that the current prices being offered in Die Mannschaft’s opening game don’t close at similar prices to that in-which Brazil did against the same opponents. The average implied probability from the six market examples for the -1.0 Asian handicap line is the region of 55.24%, clearly establishing the current price being offered as wrong.
Therefore with the market currently offering implied probabilities of 52.91% and 51.54% on both the -1.0 handicap line and the ‘Over 2.5’ line, it would be folly not to have both on side with the potential of significant movement in both markets.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Germany -1.00 at 1.860
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 2.50 Goals at 1.943
Preview by: @gscurftrader .
El Tricolo (Mexico) or DFB-Elf (Germany)? Which team do you think should have the handicaps?
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