The lethargic manner in-which ‘Les Bleus’ strolled through their final group encounter against Denmark, was met by hordes of disgruntled fans emphasizing their feelings towards both sets of players. The French performance lacked any sort of intensity, offensively registering a first half xG rating of just 0.18. Hence identifying one of the most unimaginative forty-five minutes, you will observe all summer. Amazingly the second half didn’t observe any significant improvement with France recording an xG rating of just 0.21, an embarrassing performance from a team supposedly possessing the strongest squad in this year’s World Cup. However, the French had already qualified prior to their encounter with Denmark, with a point enough to see France qualify as top seeds and Denmark proceed into the knockout stage. An element which was certainly reflected throughout the ‘Match Odds’ market, with quotes of 2.75 being relayed upon the draw and low’s of 5.00 being observed on the 0-0 scoreline.
Didier Deschamps made six changes for the game against Denmark and although he left Kylian Mbappe and Paul Pogba out of the starting line-up, Deschamps went on to blame his opponents for the dour display. He said “We have reached our goal and the most important thing for us was to top the group.”
“It has not ended up an exciting match because the Danish team were satisfied with a draw as it meant they would qualify. But all the same, while their defense was very good, we had a number of scoring opportunities.”
“We didn’t need to take risks in the match as this result was OK for everyone. We tried to get a win, but the last 15 minutes was shall we say a ‘neutral’ kind of match.”
Argentina was defiant in defeat, as they stared down the barrel of being dumped out of the 2018 FIFA World Cup. Yet thanks to the unlikeliest of candidates, Marcos Rojo stylishly slotted past Francis Uzoho to book Argentina’s place in the last sixteen. Although ‘La Albiceleste’ had Lionel Messi, Sergio Aguero, and Gonzalo Higuain collectively on the pitch together they could only raise an xG rating of 0.84. Taking into consideration the Nigerian xG rating of 1.40, you could assume that the Argentinian wave are slightly fortunate to be heading to the Kazan Arena. Consequently making hard work of the market’s pre-game implied a probability of 66.66%, while never threatening the -1.25 handicap line that had been implemented.
Yet there were jubilant scenes amongst the Argentine players at full-time, but Jorge Sampaoli didn’t join the jubilation instead he stormed straight down the tunnel. However, Sampaoli posted a glowing report on his captain “Everytime Messi plays he shows he’s a fantastic player, above everyone else.”
“He needs support from his team-mates, only then will he be able to play at his best like he did today.”
France v Argentina
The market’s current perception of France can be observed by the implied probability attached with Deschamps side, which is currently indicating a price of 2.37. A price which is evident throughout France’s historic market data, with encounters against the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain all possessing similarities within the ‘Match Odds’ market.
So how have France performed under the current market conditions, on previous occasions?
By analyzing France’s historic market data, we can observe how ‘Les Bleus’ have behaved under similar market conditions. As a result, highlighting any inefficiencies that may exist in the current market.
Netherlands v France
Portugal v France
France v SpainThe similarities between the markets are noticeable with an early indication, that the current implied probability attached with the ‘Over 2.0’ goals line within the ‘Over/Under’ market may be inadequate. The average implied probability extracted from the ‘Over 2.0’ goals line indicates an average closing price of 1.71, emphasizing the market’s current perception of 1.99 and demonstrating what seems to be an early indication that there are discrepancies within the market. In addition with previous closing highs of 1.88 and previous closing lows of 1.57, the potential positives to having the ‘Over 2.0’ goals line on side at 1.99 appears obvious.
If by delving deeper into the data records validates the information extracted from France’s previous encounters, we will end up on the correct side of the market and possess a +EV position.
Therefore by analyzing Argentina’s market data, the prices extracted will aid our efforts in determining whether the information extracted from ‘Les Bleus’ previous encounters will withstand the potential negatives that may occur prior to kick-off.
Brazil v Argentina Colombia v ArgentinaGermany v Argentina The perception throughout each sides historic market data seems to indicate the current implied probability attached with the ‘Over 2.0’ goals line is inadequate. Utilising the previous occasions in-which the perception was similar to the one currently attached with Argentina in the ‘Match Odds’ market, stipulates an average closing price of 1.72 being attached with the ‘Over 2.0’ goals line. As a result, clearly demonstrating that the current price available is underestimating the offensive process of both sides. Furthermore, the average closing price extracted from all six market examples (both France and Argentina’s previous encounters) indicates an implied probability of 58.47% being attached with the ‘Over 2.0’ goal line, as a result making a travesty of the current probability of 50.25%. Therefore with a seemingly highly beneficial entry point being identified, it would be fooly not to follow what previous market data is suggesting.
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 2.00 goals at 1.990
Preview by: @gscurftrader.