August 31, 2016

Football Betting Data & Trends – Wednesday 31st August by @DarkDyson

I recently produced a number of football betting data spreadsheets (using the excellent Football Data website, thanks @12Xpert).

These are ideal for finding Asian Handicap and other betting market trends.

Eastbridge allowed me to write an article about the spreadsheets to help punters find profitable trends for betting.

Spreadsheet Overview

Each football betting data spreadsheet covers the past three seasons of historical data.

I used three seasons of data because, going further back than this reduces the relevance of the data.

Modern football teams, their managers and tactics change so often that their stats from four seasons ago are arguably irrelevant today.

Manchester United went from winning the Premier League in 2012/13,scoring a league high 86 goals.

To finishing fifth and registering just 49 goals in 2015/16!

The spreadsheet covers a number of basic key stats and most importantly prices from Asian Handicap, 1×2 and Over/Under 2.5 Goal markets.

Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, prices are averaged from 20+ bookmakers. The 1×2 prices are Pinnacle’s closing prices.

As for the stats, I have included team and total goals for both the first half and full time. Plus, the first half and full time result, not to mention the main Asian Handicap line for the home team.

These stats are added to the price information and the spreadsheet highlights profitable betting trends.


Betting Trend Examples

Using the spreadsheets filter function, allows me to add different parameters from other data sets, in order to drill down and find potentially profitable trends.

Initially I began by looking at short priced home favourites, teams which went off with a 1×2 price of 1.50 or less.

Of the 1140 Premier League games played over the past three seasons, 197 home favourites were priced at 1.50 or less at kick off.

These heavy favourites unsurprisingly won 147 of the 197 matches, 103 of them led at half time and full time, plus 88 of them won to nil.

These games were also high scoring with 76 of the favourites notching three or more goals.

When looking at performance against the Asian Handicap line, only 86 short priced home favourites fully covered their handicap.

Straight away you can see that there are a number of profitable trends there, which could be looked at in more detail.

Based on simple information, it is clear that backing underdogs on the Asian Handicap market would have returned a profit.


Conclusion and Development

Football betting data provides a starting point for football betting systems, but it is not the finished article.

I always use this information with current data, team news and more before seriously considering any potential bet.

I also use the team goals data from these spreadsheets to produce expected goal figures for each team.

These figures are used to create expected total goals figures and a tissue price for finding value.

I have spreadsheets for the English Premier League, La Liga and Bundesliga, but I will be adding more soon.

If there are any questions or requests for stats or trends, please feel free to contact me via Twitter.

By @DarkDyson

Eastbridge Soccer Betting Broker, bespoke sports betting for the discerning client.

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