Bayern Munich v Borussia Monchengladbach – Allianz Arena at 17:30 live on BT Sport 3
For a punter that rarely gives head-to-head records a second glance when forming firm betting opinions. Even I can’t ignore the somewhat surprising recent historic results between Bayern Munich and Borussia Monchengladbach.
The two famous German clubs lock horns on Saturday evening in the Bavarian capital and despite Bayern claiming 11 league titles and two Champions League crowns this century. FC Hollywood have really struggled when pitted against the Foals.
Saturday night’s hosts have just W6-D8-L4 in the past 18 showdowns with the previous five meetings in Munich rewarding Bayern with W1-D3-L1. And it’s over 10 years since the defending champions last beat Gladbach by a margin of three goals or more.
The visitors are well-known in the Bundesliga as Bayern’s bogey team and the Foals have lived up to that reputation by going unbeaten (W2-D2-L0) in the last two campaigns against their more illustrious opponents.
Glaring Gladbach problems
However, that’s where the pleasantries and positivity surrounding Gladbach ahead of this encounter expire, for me.
Andre Schubert’s troops capitalised on two Kolo Toure mistakes in midweek to pick up a deserved 2-0 triumph at Celtic. But their road record since the start of last season is nothing short of appalling.
The Foals have W4-D4-L12 in away Bundesliga battles over the past 15 months, shipping 40 goals. Their midweek clean sheet at Parkhead was only their second shutout in 19 away trips. And their record at the division’s leading lights is also questionable.
Monchengladbach have finished in Germany’s top-five in four of their past five campaigns but lost 14/26 (54%) away days at top-six clubs, scoring more than a solitary strike on just five (19%) occasions. Eight (31%) of those defeats arrived by a margin of two goals or more.
Gladbach’s team news ahead of Saturday’s showdown also remains bleak. The Foals overcame Celtic without three of their most important performers and centre-half Andreas Christensen will again be absent. Leading marksman Raffael looks highly unlikely to feature from the off whilst Thorgan Hazard’s participation is doubtful.
Bayern yet to hit top gear
Despite the negativity surrounding the Foals, Bayern Munich have been far from their imperious selves since Carlo Ancelotti arrived at the Allianz Arena. Back-to-back draws with Koln and Frankfurt, coupled with their loss at Atletico Madrid left FC Hollywood winless in three for the first time since May 2015.
However, the Bavarians bounced back to see off PSV Eindhoven here 4-1 on Wednesday night. Their form in front of their home supporters ensures the hosts are chalked up at miniscule prices in the Match Odds market.
For the record, Bayern have W18-D2-1 since the start of 2015/16 in league outings at the Allianz Arena. Plundering 64 goals in the process. A huge 14 of those victories were achieved by more than a one-goal margin.
FC Hollywood have clinched top honours in four of the previous five seasons and their record when entertaining top-six opposition is W15-D3-L7 in that sample. Ten (40%) of those wins arrived by two goals or more.
Asian Handicap angle
The Asian Handicap line has been set at two goals for this encounter and whilst the 1.75 on offer for Bayern -1.75 still holds appeal despite the historic trends above, I’m more willing to oppose goals in this contest.
Being offered odds-against quotes of 2.08 for Under 3.25 Goals seems more than fair considering just 4/25 (16%) of Bayern’s fixtures at home to top-six sides since 2011/12 have featured four goals or more. In fact, only 12/25 (48%) broke the Over 2.5 Goals barrier.
Gladbach’s porous backline is an obvious concern but the Foals are unlikely to take a gung-ho approach to this meeting. Their own return of 11/26 (42%) Over 2.5 Goals at top-six sides, and 6/26 (23%) Over 3.5 Goals winners in the same sample, suggests the 2.06 is too big to ignore.
Asian Handicap Recommendation: Under 3.25 Goals at 2.08
Prices correct at time of writing.
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