Everton v Stoke – Goodison Park at 15:00

Taking a cautionary stance in the first four or five weeks in any new season, can clearly be beneficial. Likewise, when it comes to the remaining weeks in a season. However, the current price in which the market has opened with in the Everton v Stoke game is completely misguided.

The market’s current perception has Everton as a 56.17% probability. Everton are currently based in a filter in which home teams present probabilities between 59.88% and 50.00%. Through the observation of historical data from teams previously held in this filter, data can be extracted for use on the Asian Handicap Betting market.

The standout price available on the +2.5 market presents a probability of occurrence in the region of  47.39%. Albeit, completely wrong this allows opportunities for those willing enough to seek them.

The price which is currently available may well be gone by the time the Europa League games end on Thursday evening, with punters looking ahead for lazy price opportunities.

Though observing Everton’s current market position, this reflects positively upon the +2.5 market. Historical data presents 50.65% of teams previously priced in the identical filter as Everton were involved with games that included three goals or more.

Furthermore, the percentage of probability currently being used by books is seemingly 3.26% in favour of punters. However, that is purely based upon the data extracted by Everton’s current market position.

Parallel to Everton’s market position, the current public perception clouding Stoke may be a misguided one. Stoke are currently based in a filter, in which travelling teams present probabilities of 24.93% or less. Teams previously held in this filter have generated data which can be recycled upon the +2.5 goals market. Travelling teams contained within the exact pre-game market conditions as Stoke have been directly involved with 55.68% of games that have generated three goals. Furthering the evidence that the current price available is hugely inflated. In addition, obtaining an average probability to compare against the market’s current perception allows for a cleaner observation.

League data can also be used as an aid through observing historical performances. Obtaining the +2.5 average from the second week in the Premier League from the past four seasons generate percentages of;

  • 2016/17 – 45.00%
  • 2015/16 – 60.00%
  • 2014/15 – 50.00%
  • 2013/14 – 35.00%

Manufacturing an average from these previous four seasons would produce an average of 48.33%, which is only slightly higher than the 2016/17 current performance.

Using the same method for the third week of the Premier League can provide a guide, in which can be used as an aid for the coming week of fixtures;

  • 2016/17 – N/A
  • 2015/16 – 50.00%
  • 2014/15 – 53.33%
  • 2013/14 – 30.00%

Producing an average from the data presented would indicate an average of 44.44% for the Premier League over the opening three weeks, overall producing a marginal decline from the current performance of 45.00%. Indicating over the coming game week the number of fixtures in the Premier League to generate +2.5 goals will be in the region of four.

Everton v Stoke may well possess the conditions to be amongst those four fixtures. The books currently hold the +2.5 market at  47.39% or odds of 2.11. However, through the presented data clear indications can be observed to produce evidence in favour of +2.5 goals holding a true probability of  53.16% or odds of 1.88.

Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals at 2.11

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @gscurftrader.

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