October 16, 2016

Eibar v Osasuna Asian Total Goals Preview – Monday 17th October

Eibar v Osasuna – Ipurua Municipal Stadium at 19:45 live on Sky Sports 3

The early indications reflected from the market’s perception indicate Eibar possess an implied probability of 55.55% or odds of 1.80. Generating a supremacy rating which similar to Brighton on Saturday, has yet to be recycled upon the +2.5 goals market. Analysing the Match Odds market and the attachment to the +2.5 goals market suggest a soft under belly.

Which as a punter, soft under bellies are an attractive propersition. Extracting data from the filter from which Eibar are situated suggest that the implied probability attached to the +2.5 goals market, should be more in the region of 49.61%. Presenting an early indication that the entry point currently on offer can be beneficial, with the markets perception at 46.51%.

Additional data extracted from the filter in which Eibar are situated which may prove beneficial;


Home Team Goals – (goals scored)

  • +0.5 in 82.86% of games
  • +1.5 in 50.13% of games
  • +2.5 in 22.60% of games


Home Team Goals – (goals conceded)

  • +0.5 in 60.26% of games
  • +1.5 in 23.90% of games
  • +2.5 in 8.83%   of games

As you can see, Eibar currently possess fairly high percentages for scoring +0.5 while also conceding +0.5, which leads to the probability of both teams scoring; 51.95% or odds of 1.93. Which plays precedent in the value angle available on the 2-1 “correct score”.

The implied probability attached to Osasuna, situates them into the filter of away teams possessing probabilities of 24.93% or less. Within this filter +2.5 goals have been prolific, with three or more goals occurring in 54.46% of games. Adding to the margin already exploited from the filter, in which Eibar are situated. Combining the two sources, would produce a probability of 52.03% or odds of 1.92. Clearly identifying an opportunity of a profitable entry point, with 2.15 currently available.

Likewise to Eibar, this is how teams have performed when being situated within the same filter as Osasuna;


Away Team Goals – (goals conceded)

  • +0.5 in 85.81% of games
  • +1.5 in 56.86% of games
  • +2.5 in 29.75% of games


Away Team Goals – (goals scored)

  • +0.5 in 56.64% of games
  • +1.5 in 21.51% of games
  • +2.5 in 6.06%   of games

Providing further data which looks to favour the 2-1 “correct score” with a probability of 11.17% or odds of 8.95.

In conclusion, with 2.15 currently available for +2.5 goals and historical data implementing that the implied probability should be more in the region of 52.03% or 1.92. This Monday evening clash offers a large enough margin, in which I am happy to become involved with. Therefore, I can recommend +2.5 goals at 2.15.

Asian Total Goals Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals at 2.15

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @gscurftrader.

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