Dijon v Marseille – Stade Gaston Gérard at 16:00
The battle for a top-three Ligue 1 finish and subsequent Champions League qualification took another dramatic turn before the international break.
Current third-place incumbents Marseille welcomed fourth-placed Lyon to the Stade Velodrome knowing victory for the home side would have pushed them eight points clear of their rivals ahead of the final stretch of the season.
The two sides had rather contrasting recent records as they headed into the encounter but OL managed to turn the form book on its head and win 3-2 thanks to Memphis Depay’s stunning late strike to reignite the race for third.
Les Phocéens boss Rudi Garcia had seen his side open the scoring and then clinch what seemed like a draw before Depay’s last-gasp winner. Naturally, the Marseille supremo was unhappy, suggesting his side were tired and therefore didn’t defend well enough in the dying embers of the encounter.
Garcia admitted the international break came at a good time for his troops and he’ll be hoping to have fine-tuned his team for action as they prepare for Saturday’s trip to Dijon. L’OM are now an effective attacking outfit although they still don’t convince when put under pressure.
Dijon to play on the front foot
That’s certainly an angle Dijon will look to exploit. The front-foot philosophy of Olivier Dall’Oglio has taken many Ligue 1 teams by surprise and seen the Mustards climb into a healthy mid-table position, particularly on home soil where the hosts have W9-D3-L3 in league football.
Dijon is not the most fashionable or famous of Ligue 1 clubs but, as Dall’Oglio says, they have the right attitude as their unusual blend of fluidity and physicality fast becomes one of the league’s most eye-catching styles.
For a side only promoted last season, despite a substantial top-flight history, the Mustards have usurped expectations and stereotypes of new Ligue 1 arrivals – promoted teams tend to focus on solidity and organization.
Dijon has struck a balance between adapting to the league and playing the attacking football which brought them up. Dall’Oglio’s side suits Ligue 1’s physical nature but are also the most enthralling team to watch outside a distant top four.
The hosts have lost just once in eight (W3-D4-L1) and earned a 2-2 draw at Montpellier before the international break thanks to Wesley Saïd’s double and there’s no suggestion they’d be willing to take a step back when Marseille arrive in town.
Goals on the agenda
Dijon has only once failed to score on home soil this season and Dall’Oglio’s charges are the top goalscorers outside of the big four in France. However, keeping only four clean sheets across the campaign means entertainment often follows the Mustards and they’ve become a fixture for goals-based punters.
Over 2.75 Goals can be snapped up at 1.76 for Saturday’s showdown and carries plenty of appeal. Dijon has seen 22/30 (73%) games since promotion produce three or more goals with 13 (43%) even featuring Over 3.5 Goals whilst the average per-game stands at a whopping 3.33.
Marseille’s trends aren’t quite so prolific but their attack-minded style has led to plenty of thrillers this term. The visitors have seen 17/30 (57%) cross the Over 2.5 Goals whitewash with 11 (37%) also creeping over the Over 3.5 Goals line, with 3.27 goals-per-game dished out on average.
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 2.75 Goals at 1.775