The Danish appeared fortunate in the opening game against Peru, with La Blanquirroja dominating all the major in-play statistical departments. However Age Hareide’s side displayed composure in critical moments during the game, resulting in Christian Eriksen finding Yussuf Poulsen in the fifty-ninth minute which subsequently was enough to see Denmark join the French at the top of Group C.
Australia put up one hell of a fight in their opening game against Group C favourites France, with only an unfortunate deflected shot separating the two sides. Although Australia didn’t create anything of significance offensively (excluding the penalty), they pressed the French in the correct areas and relieved pressure when in possession. However if the Australian’s can’t display some significance offensively soon, their 2018 FIFA World Cup campaign will whimper away.
Denmark v AustraliaThe markets current perception of Denmark is evident through their historic market data, with encounters against Iceland, Armenia, and USA possessing similar implied probabilities within the ‘Match Odds’ market and with the Danish securing a crucial victory over Peru, another three points today would see Age Hareide guide this talented Danish side into the knockout stage.
So what’s the angle?
By analysing Denmark’s previous encounters against the likes of Iceland, Armenia and USA determining the closing price for the major markets should prove to be a fairly efficient task.
Denmark v IcelandArmenia v DenmarkDenmark v USAThe correlation between the ‘Match Odds’ market and Asian handicap market are apparent when analyzing the -0.5 handicap line. However, the intriguing element extracted from Denmark’s market data is the price they closed against a hardy Iceland, indicating an implied probability of 55.86%. Significantly higher than the 52.91% implied probability they currently possess against Australia, which highlights the question..
Is the price currently attached with Denmark correct?
Well it would be unfair to associate Denmark as an inferior team to the likes of Japan, as the Japanese possessed an implied probability of 57.47% in a recent encounter against the Australians. Seemingly indicating at this time the markets current perception has an unfair view on the abilities of the Danish. Another market that seems to warrant investigation is the ‘Over/Under’ market, which is currently putting forth an implied probability of 48.54% with the ‘Over 2.25’ goals line. Yet analysing the average implied probability extracted from the three market examples, indicates the average closing price for the ‘Over 2.25’ goals line to be 1.89.
Similarly to the data we extracted from Denmark’s market data, utilizing the data from Australia’s previous market encounters allows a stronger perception to be formed and relayed upon the market.
Japan v AustraliaCroatia v AustraliaDenmark v Australia Observing the market examples extracted from Australia’s historic data, indicates that the weight of the money within the ‘Over/Under’ market have been happily stationed on the ‘Over 2.25’ goals line. The three game average implied probability produced an average closing price in the region of 1.84, as a result indicating a significant discrepancy with the price currently on offer. However instead of just using the three game average, if we broaden the example to the six markets displayed by both teams the average closing price would be 1.86. Therefore with the weight of the money currently stationed on the ‘Under 2.25’ goals line and the market offering 2.06 for the ‘Over 2.25’ goals line, it would appear to be a good time to be against the public perception.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Denmark -0.50 at 1.900
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 2.25 Goals at 2.460
Preview by: @gscurftrader.
Will the Socceroos notch a win against this tight Danish Dynamite squad? We’ll see this Thursday as they the go face-to-face at Samara Arena!
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