October 27, 2016

Darmstadt v RB Leipzig Asian Total Goals Preview – Saturday 29th October

SV Darmstadt v RB Leipzig – Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor at 14:30

The early perception visually presented by the market, indicates an implied probability of 16.12%. Therefore situating Darmstadt within the parameters of hosts, possessing an implied probability of 24.93% or less. Analysing the data collected from previous games within these parameters generates an overview. Therefore allowing a more in-depth analysis of the different aspects which may occur in this game. As a result home teams possessing an implied probability of 24.93% or less have been directly involved in games producing +2.5 goals, 54.66% of the time. Subsequently equating to odds of 1.83, an early indication identifying +2.5 goals as a valuable entry point.Asian Total GoalsVisually there is a substantial probability indicating Darmstadt will concede in this game, with only 19.03% of teams escaping unscathed. Similar probabilities can be observed with Darmstadt, barely edging the probability of scoring over conceding a second. An aspect which is beneficial for punters searching for a profitable entry point within the +2.5 goals market.Asian Total GoalsSimilar to the data extracted from Darmstadt, a strong indication is evident. Followed by an increasing probability that travelling favourites Leipzig, are unlikely to leave The Jonathan-Heimes-Stadion with a clean sheet. Subsequently providing further evidence in favour of the theory of +2.5 goals occurring, with Leipzig less likely to tank.Asian Total GoalsCombining the two individual sources generates an outlook, which allows visual confirmation into explaining why Leipzig are favourites in this Bundesliga match-up. Producing dominant performances in all of the analysed goal producing areas.

In addition, the market has attached an implied probability of 59.52% to Leipzig. Positioning Ralph Hasenhuttl and company within the filter of travelling teams possessing implied probabilities of between 50.00% and 59.88%. As a result, generating a probability of 49.23% for +2.5 goals occurring within this game. Therefore, additionally providing a second source of historic data suggesting a profitable entry point is currently on offer.

Furthermore by combining the two sources of data, extracted from both Darmstadt and Leipzig. An overall probability can be formed and then recycled upon the market to establish whether a lucrative entry point can be obtained. Therefore, by combining the two sources of data an overall probability of 51.94% is produced. As a result establishing a beneficial entry point, with the market’s current perception evident at 48.54%.

Asian Total Goals Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals at 2.06

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @gscurftrader.

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