Dallas Mavericks at Washington Wizards – Verizon Centre at 23:00
Sunday night at 11pm UK time, the Dallas Mavericks head to Washington to face the Wizards in a match-up where both sides face their fair share of issues heading into the game.
The Wizards continue their wild unpredictability which so much defines their season. A win against LeBron and the Cavs, followed up by a bewildering loss to the Lakers, then overcome a mountain of roster issues to beat the Suns on Friday night.
What makes that win all the more remarkable is nearly all of the offensive threat for the Wizards were unavailable for that matchup. Although there are a couple of possible returners in Humphries and Gooden, they are still without star guard Marcin Gortat who has a family emergency he has to tend to in Poland.
The Mavs still aren’t at 100% and shot for a pathetic 27% from 3-point range on Friday night against Houston. They had every chance to win that game and can blame their 4 point loss from their wastefulness from 3 point range. It is also the first time this season the Mavericks have conceded triple digit points in a row.
Dallas would be fancying themselves to get a result tonight and have a great record against the Wizards. All 10 of these previous fixtures have gone the way of the Mavs, including the last 6 at Washinton. I would be tempted to put up the Mavs as the pick but the Wizards seem to primarily put up their best performances as dogs so there appears to be a better angle into the game with the totals market.
The points total for the game has been set at 207.5. This definitely feels a good 5 or 6 points too high based on the calculations I have and also there is one key Conference based stat to take into consideration.
In the NBA this season, there a big unders bias when non-Conference teams face off against each other. So far in 2015/16 based on 81 games, the unders has landed 52 times (64%). Betting them blind this season will have landed you over £20 profit to a £1 stake.
It looks worth sticking with a low total considering the problems both teams bring to the game, and the mixed conference bias.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Under 207.5 points
Prices correct at time of writing.
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