October 14, 2016

Crystal Palace v West Ham Asian Handicap Preview – Saturday 15th October

Crystal Palace v West Ham – Selhurst Park at 17:30 live on BT Sport 1

I am looking to continue my profitable start to the 2016/17 season with another Asian Handicap bet this weekend.

Game week eight in the Premier League brings another London Derby to our screens, as Palace host struggling West Ham.

Last season’s second biggest success story, behind Leicester taking the title, was perhaps West Ham finishing 7th under Slaven Bilic.

Palace ended last season like dead men walking, just two wins from Boxing Day until the end of the season.

But this season so far shows, what a funny old game football can be.

High flying Eagles…

Alan Pardew made some astute signings in the summer, to bolster key areas such as their attack, with Cristian Benteke.

After a couple of close 1-0 defeats to start their campaign, Palace are now undefeated in five Premier League games.

They have racked up eleven goals in these five games, with Benteke back to his best and scoring three times.

This good run of results has seen the South London club push their way up to 8th in the table. Pardew will be expecting another strong home performance, against a team still struggling to find their best form.

Unhappy Hammers…

West Ham moved to their new stadium in Stratford over the summer and as many predicted, it is taking time for them to feel at home in their new surroundings.

Just one league win in their opening seven matches, leaves Bilic’s team languishing down in 18th place in the league.

However, one bright spot of the season so far has been the goal scoring form of Michail Antonio. The young winger has notched five times already and looks like a huge talent in the making.

Also, star man Dimitri Payet recently returned from injury and has immediately found the net for club & country.

Data, trends and prices…

Palace are chalked up as around 2.15 favourites to win this match, while West Ham are 3.45 away underdogs.

Based on my data sheet, there have been 347 home favourites of 2.0 or bigger in the past three seasons.

Of those 347 weaker home favourites, just 135 (38.9%) of them ended up winning & just 141 (40.63%) had over 2.5 goals.

Of the 237 away underdogs in a similar range to West Ham’s 3.45, a measly 66 (27.84%) of them won.

In terms of goals, just 93 (39.24%) of these games saw three or more goals scored in the 90 minutes.

Drilling down, I can see that Palace have won 9 of 23 home games (39.13%), when priced in this range. With just 7 of 23 games (30.43%) ending with over 2.5 goals, both roughly in line with league averages.

The Hammers on the road, in this price range, have won just 2 of 16 (12.5%) Premier League games. However, 9 of 16 games (56.25%) did see at least three goals scored.

Putting these trends together, it is clear that teams in similar prices ranges and these two teams in particular. Have really struggled to win games like this in recent seasons.

It seems likely to me that a draw, a low scoring one, is the most likely outcome on Saturday evening.

However, looking at more recent data it is clear that both sides struggle on the defensive aspect of their game.

Crystal Palace are yet to keep a clean sheet so far this season and West Ham have only managed one.

Obviously, this recent data is in opposition to the historical data mentioned earlier. Taking into account the high number of goals so far this season & the poor defences, we should see goals.

Asian Handicap markets…

Based on the trends highlighted and my model prices, I think the market is pretty sharp on this match.

But, there is some value in backing West Ham +0.25 at 2.13. Although, this is a price which has been drifting, so it could pay to back it nearer to kick off.

There is also some value available in the Over 2.5 Goals market at 1.89. Incidentally, this bet has cashed in the last four meetings between these two sides.

Asian Handicap Recommendation: West Ham +0.25 at 2.13 and Over 2.5 Goals at 1.89

Prices correct at the time of writing.

By @DarkDyson, all stats taken from his data sheets.

Eastbridge Soccer Betting Broker, Asian Handicap specialists.

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