Borussia Dortmund v Benfica – Westfalenstadion at 19:45 BT Sport 3
Back for more Champions League action with my Asian Handicap preview of Thomas Tuchel’s Dortmund hosting Rui Vitoria’s Benfica.
The German side have to fight back from an unexpected 1-0 first leg defeat, which cost me a losing bet!
Dortmund have not been at their best in Bundesliga this season, they are currently battling Hoffenheim for 3rd place.
But, as mentioned in the first leg preview they had been excellent, until losing in Benfica last time out.
If you saw that match, you will know just how lucky the home side were to steal a victory from under Dortmund’s nose.
Tuchel’s team missed chance after chance and even failed to score from the penalty spot, it just wasn’t meant to be!
However, when it comes to playing at home, Dortmund are still a formidable side to reckon with.
They are unbeaten in their last 17 matches at the Westfalenstadion in all competitions. In the league they average 2.55 home goals per game, while conceding just 0.64 per game!
Naturally their Champions League recent record at home is not quite as impressive, W11 D2 L3 but it is still very good.
Those four defeats came against Zenit, Arsenal and Junventus, but the likes of Real Madrid, Napoli and Manchester City could not win in Dortmund.
The hosts will be without their key playmaker Marco Reus, but they have plenty of other attacking players who need to step up tomorrow night.
The Portuguese Champions have a glimmer of hope coming into this second leg encounter, but they need another off day from Dortmund to avoid conceding any goals.
That means they will need to come out and at least try to score one goal on the break, as the hosts will dominate possession.
Unfortunately for Benfica’a travelling fans, their club does not fare well on the road in the Champions League.
Their recent history shows a poor record of, W4 D3 L7 and with just 17 goals scored. It shows how hard they will find it to progress tomorrow night.
They are usually competitive and those past victories at Anderlecht, Zenit, Kiev and Atletico Madrid, give some hope.
With 24 goals conceded in those past 14 road trips, Benfica’s away games are averaging 2.92 goals per game.
Asian Handicap Prices and Recommendation…
Understanably Dortmund are heavily favoured by the bookies to win this match. They can be backed on the -1.5 Asian Handicap line at 2.08. On the face of it looks about right on my numbers.
When looking at the Asian Total Goals market, I think we have found some value in the market. The line is set at +/- 3 Goals and the Overs can be backed at 2.03 with Eastbridge.
Based on Dortmund’s scoring rate in home games and the fact they need to score at least twice to reach the quarter finals. Plus, Benfica should be aiming to grab an away goal on the break, I think there is good value in backing goals here.
Asian Handicap Recommendation: Over 3 Goals at 2.03
Prices correct at time of writing.
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