Brighton v Preston – Falmer Stadium at 15:00

The implied probabilities surrounding the Match Odds market, have yet to be reflected upon the +2.5 goals market. Brighton currently possess an implied probability of 61.34% or odds of 1.63, yet the supremacy rating attached with that implied probability has yet to be recycled upon the overs markets. But, why?

Laziness. Unprompted. Unaware. A self-conscious experiment that may prove beneficial for those implementing the prices. However for those of us that have been made aware, the current entry point on offer has been profitable time and again.

Brighton currently possess an implied probability of 61.34%, which is situated within the filter of home teams possessing implied probabilities of between 60.24% and 74.62%. Utilizing this filter to analyse the potential outcome of this game, can provide a beneficial guideline to what may occur.

The occurrence of +2.5 goals, in comparison to what is currently being offered is astonishing. The implied probability being suggested from the markets perception is evident at 46.29%. However from analysing historical data within these parameters, data suggests that the implied probability should be more in the region of 59.16% or odds of 1.69.

Hence, why a spectacular void has been made evident within the market. Further, evidence which may aid the theory of an undervalued market is that of the data extracted from individual team goals. Past teams within the same filter as Brighton, have scored;

  • +0.5 goals in 84.89%
  • +1.5 goals in 59.81%
  • +2.5 goals in 33.44%

vs goals conceded;

  • +0.5 goals in 57.23%
  • +1.5 goals in 20.58%
  • +2.5 goals in 5.14%

Visually this data will suggest a market to some of you which I have yet to cover. Therefore by indulging your intrigue, both teams have scored in 50.16% of games or odds of 1.99. Consequently, bringing the 2-1 or 3-0 “correct scores” into the equation with probabilities of 11.58% and 9.97%. Both of which providing value angles, with that being said that is for another preview.

In conclusion, given the market is offering such a lucrative entry point which is reminiscent of the previous Europa League fixtures. It would be illogical to turn down the opportunity to become involved with +2.5 goals at 2.16. Although, you may not observe a significant shift in price pre-game due to the fact it is a 15:00 kick off on a Saturday afternoon. The entry point available is still sound and a profitable situation to be in, long term. Therefore, for that reason I can recommend +2.5 goals at 2.16.

Asian Total Goals Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals at 2.16

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @gscurftrader.

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