The 2014 World Cup is likely to be the most humiliating moment in Brazilian footballing history. Germany’s astonishing 7-1 victory left the Brazilian Football Confederation in ruins, as they frantically tried to regain their respect by insisting victory in the Copa America would quickly disregard the humiliation of their semi-final thumping. However after Paraguay dismissed Brazil in the quarterfinals of the Copa America, the bitter taste of their humiliating loss still lingers. Although positive strides have been made under Adenor Bacchi, with an impressive ten wins and two draws from his group games in charge. The only way Brazil will regain their respect on the world stage, is if they are able to justify favoritism and lift their sixth World Cup. Anything less and the nation’s media will quickly disregard the current group of players and cries of ‘the worst generation in Brazil’s history’ will again be heard.
Brazil v SwitzerlandThe price currently attached with Brazil indicates an implied probability of 69.44%, which would make this ‘Canarinha’ most difficult game of the group stage. As a result, insinuating that Brazil’s passage to the knockout stage to be inevitable. The current three-game average implied probability for the Brazilian’s group games, soar in at 74.07%. Making it the largest three-game average across all eight groups, superior to both Germany (70.92%) and France (69.44%).
So how has the market reacted when Brazil have been heavily favoured?
By analyzing the market’s behaviour from Brazil’s historic market data, we can observe which side of the market possessed the smart money and as a result highlight any inefficiencies that may exist in the current markets.
Australia v Brazil Venezuela v Brazil Brazil v UruguayOn the three previous occasions when the market’s perception of Brazil have aligned with the current, the Asian handicap line has been set at -1.25/+1.25. The average implied probability from the three market examples for the -1.25 line equates to a percentage of 49.01, identical to the implied probability currently on offer. Although the ‘Match Odds’ and ‘Asian Handicap’ market appear to be truly efficient, based upon previous market data extracted from Brazil’s previous encounters. The pricing of the ‘Over/Under’ market seems far from efficient.
What is the true implied probability for the ‘Over 2.5’ goals line?
If we analyze Switzerland’s historic market data in a similar manner to the implied probabilities extracted from Brazil’s market log, we will be able to identify the true implied probability for each market of concern.
Spain v SwitzerlandNetherlands v SwitzerlandEngland v SwitzerlandAgain, similar to the implied probability extracted from Brazil’s historic market data. Switzerland’s previous encounters when situated against teams with implied probabilities in the region of 69.44%, resulted in the -1.25 handicap line closing with an average price of 2.06. Almost identical to the price currently available for Brazil to cover the -1.25 Asian handicap. Which indicates that the pricing currently set up by the market is efficient with no edge available. However, the market that possessed potential when we analyzed Brazil’s historic market data, was the ‘Over/Under’ market and specifically the price available on ‘Over 2.5’ goals.
By utilizing the data available from the six examples provided the average closing price for the ‘Over 2.5’ goals line has been 1.82. A significant discrepancy in comparison to the price currently available. Therefore with the market currently offering 2.06, on an event that appears to close with much shorter odds. It would seem that by having the ‘Over 2.5’ goals line on side, we would land on the correct side of the market and it would come as no surprise to witness the closing price edge towards previous occurrences.
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 2.5 Goals at 1.892
Preview by: @gscurftrader.
Your surely don’t want to miss betting on this exciting match between Seleção Brasileira and Die Nati at Rostov Arena!