Brazil are slowly beginning to come to fruition with performances gradually improving, as ‘Selecao’ look to appease the embarrassment that was witnessed on the world stage back in 2014. Although we have still yet to witness the beautiful brutally that previous Brazilian national teams have possessed, glimpses of conviction have been evident. Adenor Leonardo Bacchi’s side have produced an xG total of 6.70 from their three group encounters, which is currently the fourth highest return from any of the sides in the World Cup so far. Although the Brazilians are renowned for their reputation of possessing the most intelligent offensive players on the planet, defensively they have been convincing only allowing an xG total of 2.00. A total which at this stage has only been bettered by Uruguay and France.
Yet as his side celebrated after their two-nil victory over Serbia, insuring their qualification as the number one seed from Group E. Adenor Leonardo Bacchi silently shook the hand of Mladen Krstajic and headed back down the tunnel.
At his post-match press conference, he spoke about his favourite topic ‘evolution’.
“We don’t live off expectations, we live off reality.”
“This is a team that is growing mentally stronger in the competition and taking the pressure with a good performance on the pitch and a balanced team. There are huge expectations but we are evolving and consolidating.”
An intriguing observation into the mindset of a man who now possesses the responsibility of rebuilding the Brazilian reputation. Adenor Leonardo Bacchi also known as ‘Tite’ is a free-thinking man, always processing information. A brilliant quote by Vishnu Prasad “Tite demands a lot more. For him, football is not just a series of one-night stands.” Tite spent a year traveling around the world watching games and discussing football with the best managers in the world, assimilating everything into himself.
An article in Blizzard perhaps best describes his decision to take a sabbatical. “His quest for knowledge, nuance, and development wasn’t merely academic, but existential. He needed to cultivate his attack.”
After back-to-back victories, it seemed highly unlikely to be mentioning Mexico, with the possibility of not progressing into the knockout phase. Yet as Sweden continued to dismantle ‘El Tricolor’ the distinct possibility of Mexico not reaching the last sixteen was becoming more and more likely. As although Germany were being held by South Korea, ‘Die Mannschaft’ still possessed an in-play implied probability in the region of 54.00%. Yet as time decayed and the German’s become more desperate, South Korea were able to deliver two devastating blows to insure Mexico’s safe passage into the last sixteen.
Juan Carlos Osorio described the experience as a learning curve. “My sin was to be a purist, to think we could compete and beat a team who play the same type of football every weekend.”
“Hopefully one day I will get it right, that we play good football and can beat teams who play that way. This match has taught me a lot.”
Brazil v Mexico The implied probability attached with Brazil demonstrates a consistency in opposition, with three of ‘Selecaos’ previous four encounters possessing similarities within the ‘Match Odds’ market.
The opening price on Brazil within the ‘Match Odds’ market has attracted some support, with opening quotes in the region of 1.57. Which appears to be public money snapping up the early showings after Mexico’s dismal display against Sweden. Consequently, Brazil’s implied probability within the ‘Match Odds’ market has risen to 65.78%, forcing the ‘Asian Handicap’ line into following suit with the current line being set at -1.0/+1.0.
So is the current perception of the ‘Over/Under’ market in correlation with the early movement that has been observed on Brazil, in both the ‘Match Odds’ and ‘Asian Handicap’ market?
Observing Brazil’s historic market data and extracting previous encounters in-which the market believed ‘Canarinho’ to possess similar implied probabilities within the ‘Match Odds’ market, will help determine whether we can identify which side of the market will be correct.
Serbia v Brazil
Brazil v Switzerland
Austria v Brazil
The striking resemblance that is evident throughout the ‘Match Odds’ market can help identify if any discrepancies exist within the ’Asian Handicap’ market or the ‘Over/Under’ market. Analysing the closing price within the ‘Asian Handicap’ market from Brazil’s previous three encounters indicates an average implied probability of 53.19% being attached with the -1.0 handicap line. At this stage, the current market’s perception of the -1.0 handicap line appears in correlation with previous market data.
However, the average implied probability extracted from the closing prices within the ‘Over/Under’ market, indicate the current perception surrounding the ‘Over 2.5’ goals line should be slightly shorter than what is currently being offered.
So is the market’s current perception of the ‘Over 2.5’ goal line distorted, due to Brazil’s slow-burning performances?
By analysing Mexico’s historic market data and extracting previous encounters in-which the market believed ‘El Tri’ to possess a similar price in obtaining victory, the information acquired will aid our efforts in determining whether the data extracted from Brazil’s previous encounters can withstand the potential negatives that may occur in the market prior to kick-off.
Germany v Mexico
Belgium v Mexico
Brazil v Mexico
The data extracted from Mexico’s historic market data seems to tell a familiar story to that of the data we extracted from Brazil’s previous encounters, just with a little more detail. The implied probability currently attached with Brazil covering the -1.0 handicap line is being seemingly undervalued, by observing Mexico’s previous encounters with Belgium, Germany and Brazil the average implied probability attached with the -1.0 ‘Asian Handicap’ line has been 54.64%.
However, by observing both sides previous encounters when the ‘Match Odds’ market has been under similar conditions, the average implied probability for the -1.0 ‘Asian Handicap’ line has been 54.05%. Consequently proving to be almost identical to the current price attached with Brazil within the ‘Asian Handicap’ market and therefore identifying the current prices within ‘Asian Handicap’ market as efficient.
Yet by utilizing the data available from the six examples provided from both sides, the average closing price from the ‘Over 2.5’ goals line has been 1.79. Hence, providing a significant discrepancy in comparison with the price currently available. Therefore with the market currently offering 2.06, on an event that appears to close with an implied probability more significant than what is currently being offered. It would seem that by having the ‘Over 2.5’ goals line on the side, we would land on the correct side of the market.
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 2.50 goals at 1.960
Preview by: @gscurftrader.