The Brazilian flare, drive, and attitude was absent in their opening game against Switzerland after a beautiful strike from Philippe Coutinho in the twentieth minute there was an expectation. An expectation that we would witness this Brazilian side put Switzerland to the sword, an element that we want them to possess but have yet to witness on the world stage. The intensity dropped significantly after Coutinho’s strike, allowing the Swiss to gradually grind their way back into the game. Although Brazil applied some pressure in the remaining minutes of the game, victory eluded them and rightly so.
At times Costa Rica managed to display some beautiful moments of football, yet similar to their Group E counterparts they lacked conviction. On another day Serbia may of had three or four goals, as defensively Costa Rica were worrying and if the current mixture of indecision and lack of conviction continue it will be an early plane ride home.
Brazil v Costa Rica
The market’s perception of Brazil is significant sporting an implied probability of 86.20%, with a notable percentage of the market’s share within the ‘Match Odds’ market. Similarities can be observed throughout Canarinha’s historic market data, with encounters against Ecuador, Paraguay, and Honduras all possessing significant perceptions of this Brazilian side.
How can we benefit from such a one-sided market encounter?
Analyzing Brazil’s previous games when the market has suspected Selecao of possessing an implied probability in the region of 86.02%, can help determine whether any discrepancies currently exist within the market and if so how we can benefit from them.
Brazil v EcuadorBrazil v ParaguayBrazil v Honduras
The similarities within these markets are striking with early indications that the current market may witness significant support for Brazil prior to kickoff. The average implied probability extracted from the -2.0 Asian handicap line appears to stipulate an average closing price of 1.77, highlighting the discrepancy within the market as prices in the region of 1.93 are freely available. In addition with previous high’s of 1.92 and low’s of 1.57, the potential upside to having the -2.0 handicap line on side at 1.93 seems significant. In correlation with the Asian handicap market, the ‘Over/Under’ market appears to possess some potential with the ‘Over 2.75’ goals line possessing an implied probability of 51.28%. However on previous occasions when the current market conditions have been evident, the weight of the money has appeared to be on the ‘Over 2.75’ goal line with some games possessing implied probabilities as high as 69.93%. Yet current prices of 1.95 are being thrown around like confetti.
If further analysis validates our current perception, we may have found two lovely positions in-which to enter the market.
Analysing Costa Rica’s market data will aid our efforts in determining whether the data extracted from Brazil’s previous encounters can withstand the potential negatives that may occur prior to kickoff.
Spain v Costa RicaArgentina v Costa RicaMexico v Costa Rica
The perception throughout their historic market data seems to indicate the current implied probability attached with the -2.0 Asian handicap line is inadequate. In their encounters with Costa Rica, both Spain and Argentina possessed an implied probability in the region of 84.74% and that dominance within the ‘Match Odds’ market was echoed throughout the Asian handicap and ‘Over/Under’ markets. Utilizing the previous occasions in-which the perception was similar to the one currently lingering over Brazil, stipulates an average closing price of 1.77 being attached with the -2.0 handicap line. As a result, clearly demonstrating that the current price available is underestimating this Brazilian side after their poor showing against Switzerland. Furthermore with the perception of Brazil currently being flawed the data on the ‘Over/Under’ market appears to identify an additional discrepancy. The average closing price extracted from all six market examples indicates an implied probability of 60.97% being attached with the ‘Over 2.75’ goal line market, as a result making somewhat of a mockery of the current probability of 51.28%. Therefore with two fantastic entry points being identified, it would be foolish not to have them both on side with the potential positives outnumbering any negatives that may arise.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Brazil -2.0 at 2.160
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 2.75 Goals at 1.950
Preview by: @gscurftrader.
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