Athletic Bilbao v Sporting Gijon – San Mamés Stadium at 17:30 live on Sky Sports 1

Analysing the market’s perception indicates an implied probability of 73.52% being attached with Los Leones. As a result, Ernesto Valverde and staff are within the parameters of host teams possessing an implied probability of between 60.24% and 74.62%. Consequently, host teams attached with implied probabilities within these parameters have amassed a total of 916 goals in the previous 444 games, hence equating to xG average of 2.06.

In addition, data extracted from the parameters in use indicate a total of 1304 goals have been amassed within those 444 games. This results in an xG rating of 2.94, which in turn can be attached with this Spanish match-up, providing an early indication into how this game may conclude.

Further evidence that collaborates with the theory of defensive negligence – 263 of the previous 444 games (59.23%) have resulted in three or more goals occurring. In comparison, with the market’s current perception of over 2.5 goals (55.24%). An indication of an undervalued approach appears to have been implemented. Subsequently‍‍, this produces an attractive of amount of value.

Los Leones have been situated within the parameters of host teams possessing an implied probability of between 60.24% and 74.62% three times since October 2016; 71.42% v Osasuna (1-1), 71.94% v Genk (5-3) and 67.11% v Sassuolo (3-2). Although it is a small sample size, Bilbao have averaged 3.00 goals per game while being situated within the current parameters.

Observing the perception attached with Gijon, indicates an implied probability of 9.52%. As a result, Joan Francesc Ferrer Sicilia (Rubi) and staff are within the parameters of travelling teams possessing an implied probability of 24.93% or less. Consequently, travelling teams that have possessed an implied probability within the parameters in which Gijon are situated, have amassed a total of 1119 goals from the previous 1321 games. Subsequently, this equates an xG average of 0.85.

However, from those 1321 games a total of 3727 goals have been produced. This has resulted in a xG rating of 2.82, which in turn can be averaged with the data already presented.

In addition, with the evidence already presented, defensive negligence is clearly evident as 730 of the previous 1321 games have resulted in three or more goals (55.26%) occurring.

Sporting Gijon have been attached with similar implied probabilities five times since October 2016; 16.94% v Malaga (3-2), 2.77% v Real Madrid (2-1), 16.94% v Espanyol (2-1), 15.15% v Las Palmas (1-0) and 17.24% v Real Betis (0-0). As you can see three of their previous five games when attached with similar market conditions, resulted in three or more goals occurring.

In conclusion, by combining both individual sources of data an overall probability of 57.24% (odds of 1.74) can be attached with three or more goals occurring from within this game. Consequently, with the market’s current perception of over 2.5 goals at 55.24% an undervalued approach has been established. This produces a significant edge against the market.

Asian Handicap Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals at 1.81

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @gscurftrader.

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