Bayern Munich v FC Porto – Allianz Arena at 19:45 live on Sky Sports 1
With the other Champions League fixture this Tuesday night a formality, or should be, this is definitely the one to watch and arguably the most anticipated 2nd leg tie this week. Last week we correctly recommended Porto +0.5 at 2.1, on the Asian Handicap betting market, at the Estadio do Dragao as the Portuguese side ran out 3-1 winners over Bayern Munich. Porto take a huge advantage into the second leg as they look to make the Semi Final for the first time since winning the trophy under Jose Mourinho in 2004.
The Bavarian’s were able to get a vital away goal which gives them a chance back at the Allianz Arena but are underdogs to make it through to the Semi Finals.
Porto’s 1st leg win was down to hard work and pressure, moving the ball quickly to attack. They were happy to soak up the pressure and hit the visitors on the counter, with Bayern dominating possession, 69%, but failing to create as many opportunities as the home side. Porto were also helped by Munich’s poor defending with Alonso giving the ball away in the lead up to the early penalty and Dante being inexcusably dispossessed allowing Quaresma to score his 2nd.
Bayern bounced back from their defeat to Porto with a 2-0 win over Hoffenheim at the weekend and now only need a further 6 points to secure the Bundesliga title. Their domestic form has never been in doubt this season though. Munich’s away form in the UCL is questionable, only winning 2 their 5 matches this campaign but their home form is played 5, won 5 and 4 of those have been by 2 or more goals.
One statistic that goes against Pep Guardiola’s side is that they have never overturned a 2 goal deficit in the competition in 4 attempts, one reason for them to be underdogs to qualify at 2.05. They are also still hit by an injury crisis but may welcome back Ribery and Schweinsteiger if fit.
The video of Pep sarcastically applauding his medical team showed the frustration and pressure on the ex-Barcelona manager and questions will be asked if he fails to make it 4 UCL Semi-Finals in a row for Munich.
Porto will be expecting Bayern to come at them and control possession as they did in the first leg and I expect Julen Lopetegui to set his side up in exactly the same way as he did at home and try to nick an away goal on the counter attack.
I think Bayern will to win tomorrow night and can pull back the 2 goal deficit from the 1st leg. Although history says they won’t and the injuries they have, Munich still a quality squad and a manager that has been there and done it. Porto will also not be helped by injuries to both full backs and the possible loss of Christian Tello.
Asian Handicap Recommendation: Bayern Munich -1.5 @ 2.0
Prices correct at time of writing.
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