Tennis Handicap Betting Preview – Quarter-Final – Viktor Troicki vs Fernando Verdasco
Paolo Lorenzi’s handicap betting win over Filip Krajinovic ended last week on a good note, and with the US Open around the corner, hopefully we can build on that with a tennis handicap betting win tonight at the ATP event at Winston Salem.
At around midnight UK time, Viktor Troicki takes on Fernando Verdasco in what some bettors may describe as a battle between two of the most frustrating players on tour. However, it does yield a solid betting opportunity…
Troicki, after a superb run of results after his drugs-related ban finished, has flattered to deceive of late, whilst Verdasco has managed that feat for the majority of his career.
Certainly, the Spaniard does his best work on clay, as illustrated by his mediocre hard court stats in comparison.
Unfortunately for Verdasco, today’s surface is hard court, and after Troicki impressively downed home favourite Sam Querrey in straight sets last night, the Serb should be confident of a semi-final berth.
To an extent, the market disagrees, making Troicki an underdog at around 2.20 for the match, and my model made this price value, actually indicating that the prices should be the other way around, with Troicki as slight favourite.
In the last 12 months on hard court, Troicki has held serve 79.4% and broken opponents 21.6% (102.0%) whilst Verdasco hasn’t even made the 100% combined mark, with 82.0% holds and 16.8% breaks (98.8%).
This reducing return percentage of Verdasco is typical with an ageing players profile, and shouldn’t be considered a huge surprise.
Based on the hold/break stats, there really isn’t much to justify Verdasco’s status as favourite, and followers should also be heartened with Troicki’s superb stats as a slight underdog.
Indeed, priced 2.00 to 2.99 on hard court in best of three set matches, Troicki has won six and lost six of his last 12, whilst using the same price range data in best of three set matches, he is 10-7 on all surfaces – very impressive historical data indeed.
Of those ten wins, Troicki has covered -2.5 games in a win in all, so it seems to make sense to take the bigger price on him achieving this margin.
However, just one small bookmaker has priced this (at 2.66) so we will have to stick with a simple recommendation of backing Troicki for the win this evening.
Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation: Viktor Troicki to win at 2.23
Prices correct at time of writing.
Eastbridge Sports Betting Brokerage, now UK licensed.