ATP Winston-Salem – Semi-Final – John Millman v Pablo Carreno-Busta

This week’s Tennis Handicap betting got off to a good start with an underdog win, at 2.23, for Viktor Troicki overnight on the hard courts of ATP Winston Salem, and there’s a strong Asian handicap betting opportunity tonight in the same tournament in the match between John Millman and Pablo Carreno-Busta, at around midnight UK time.

 

The Prices

Market activity has been for the Spaniard this morning, and that isn’t a surprise at all, given that my model makes him 1.79, and he’s currently available around the even money mark.  It wouldn’t be a shock at all to see Carreno-Busta start the match as favourite.

 

The Tournament So Far

Given that we are at the semi-final stage, both players have overachieved – Millman was unseeded, and Carreno-Busta was seeded 16th.  Millman has endured three final sets to get this far, and in all those matches lost the first set.  Yesterday’s surprise win over Richard Gasquet was his first straight sets triumph.

Conversely, Carreno-Busta benefited from a bye in the opening round and has won all his matches in straight sets, so it is reasonable to consider that the Spaniard is less likely to be affected by fatigue.

 

Hold/Break Stats

In the last 12 months on hard court, Millman has held serve 74.6% of the time, and broken opponents 25.5% (combined 100.1%), whilst Carreno-Busta is better, at 78.4% and 23.9% respectively (102.3%).

This data was the main driver behind my model pricing, indicating value on Carreno-Busta.  In this sample, Carreno-Busta also has a better 11-8 win-loss record, to Millman’s 12-14.

 

Historical Trends

Carreno-Busta has been very strong in matches priced around evens on hard court, indicating that he’s frequently been under-rated by the market in similar spots previously.

In best of three set matches on hard court, priced between 1.50 and 2.99, Carreno-Busta is 11-9, and yields very strong returns based on Pinnacle closing prices.  In those matches, all 11 wins came via a three game or greater margin, so in an ideal world we’d look at backing Carreno-Busta -2.5 games.  Only some very small books offer this line, and this is available at 2.43, but we can get Carreno-Busta -0.5 games at 2.05, and it would be better to take a handicap betting opportunity than taking the quickly falling match odds price.

Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation: Pablo Carreno-Busta -0.5 games at 2.05

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @Tennisratings.

Eastbridge Sports Betting Brokerage, now UK licensed.

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