ATP Toronto Rogers Cup – Third Round – Gael Monfils v David Goffin
Our last handicap betting preview recommended Gael Monfils -2 games to beat Sam Querrey, and the flamboyant Frenchman gave us a solid winner, and indeed, took the title in Washington last week.
Seven wins on the spin for Monfils has seen him drop just two sets, and no doubt his confidence should be high, although there would be a slight doubt over accumulated fatigue.
Despite this, my model made him value today against David Goffin, pricing him at 1.59 against the Belgian, with the market making him currently available at around 1.82.
In these type of scenarios, handicap betting is an ideal way to back someone with slight fatigue doubts, as a retirement will give us a void – as opposed to a loss. It’s definitely important to be aware of bookmaker rules, and where possible, take advantage of them, and this is an example of that.
Monfils has generated some superb numbers on hard court in the last 12 months, winning 18 of 24 matches, holding serve 87.4% and breaking opponents 28.9% (combined 116.3%). These stats would, without doubt, make him a top ten player on the surface.
Opponent Goffin has solid numbers himself, holding 80.6% and breaking 29.1% (combined 109.7%) this combined 6.6% difference is not at all reflected in the market, which prices the two players much tighter.
It’s also worth noting that Monfils has a superb record as a slight 1.50-1.99 favourite. He’s won 37 of his last 50 matches in this price range and of these 37 wins, has covered the -1.5 game handicap line 33 times.
Having done so on 33 of his last 50 price range matches (66%), implied odds based on historical tendencies would be around the 1.52 mark, yet the oddsmakers are making this line available at a current 2.01.
Considering the benefits of retirement voiding, and Monfils’ historical ease of covering this line when winning, taking the bigger 2.01 on Monfils to win giving up 1.5 games makes a lot more sense than backing him to win the match outright at 1.82.
Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation: Back Gael Monfils -1.5 games at 2.01
Prices correct at the time of writing.
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