ATP Challenger Granby – Second Round – James Ward v Frances Tiafoe
In the run-up to the Olympic Tennis event, which starts this weekend, there is a very mediocre week of Tennis, with an ATP event at Atlanta, and WTA tournaments in Florianopolis and Nanchang. The WTA tournaments in particular are of a woeful standard, with the Nanchang event more akin to an ITF event.
Assessment of these three events today didn’t generate any handicap betting opportunities I particularly liked, so I’m dropping down to the Challenger Tour to find a recommendation.
This takes shape at around 1am UK time tonight in the Granby Challenger, with the declining Brit, James Ward, taking on the promising American youngster, Frances Tiafoe.
Certainly, it’s very fair to say that these two players’ careers are on a rather different tangent, with Tiafoe close to breaking the top 150 at the age of 18, whilst Ward – with an awful 12-20 record so far this year – almost at the point of dropping below 250 in the rankings. There are also fitness doubts over Ward, after he retired 6-3 3-1 down to Lloyd Glasspool last week in Lexington.
My model priced up Tiafoe at 1.37, and with prices currently available around the 1.47 mark, he represents some value against an opponent who has shown very little indeed this year. In addition to this, the last time Ward won when priced at bigger than 3.00 was against John-Patrick Smith in Mons last year.
Indeed, the Brit has a terrible record as a heavy underdog, returning -14% at Pinnacle Sports closing prices when priced over 3.00, whilst Tiafoe has impressed as a favourite throughout his young career.
Priced under 1.50 in the last 12 months, Tiafoe boasts a superb 17-4 record, and is 10-4-7 for covering the -3 game line, currently available at around 1.88. Removing the four pushes, this would imply odds of clearing this line of 1.69, further indicating that the handicap betting value is on Tiafoe tonight.
All things considered, backing Tiafoe -3 games at 1.88 looks to be a very solid proposition indeed.
Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation: Frances Tiafoe -3 games at 1.88
Prices correct at the time of writing.
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