ATP Moscow – Second Round – Andrey Kuznetsov vs Thomaz Bellucci
With the tour returning to Europe for the last few weeks of the season, today’s Eastbridge Sports Betting Broker preview comes from ATP Moscow, on Indoor Hard, with today’s handicap betting proposition coming in the match between Andrey Kuznetsov and Thomaz Bellucci.
Scheduled for around 230pm UK time, home favourite Kuznetsov takes on the Brazilian clay-courter, Bellucci, whose numbers away from his preferred surface have taken a big hit in the last 12 months. This is in complete contrast to Kuznetsov, who has really improved in 2016.
Kuznetsov is justifiably favourite at around 1.43, but my model priced him at 1.29, making the market pricing generous by around 7.5% implied percentage.
The Tournament So Far
Kuznetsov ousted the Argentinian clay-courter, Guido Pella, in the first round, but required three sets to do so. He created 12 break points in 15 return games, but also allowed nine in 14 service games as well.
Bellucci opened the tournament on Monday with a facile 7-5 6-1 win over Cem Ilkel, in a match which was a virtual bye (he was 1.12 favourite against the Turkish wild-card, who is ranked outside the top 300 in the world).
On hard or indoor hard in the last 12 months, Kuznetsov’s data is impressive – he’s won 21 of 34 matches, holding serve 79.4% of the time, whilst breaking opponents 26.0% (combined 105.4%). Bellucci’s record is much worse, winning just six of 18 matches, holding serve 75.5% and breaking opponents 20.2% (95.7%), and this large discrepancy formed the main basis of my model pricing.
Kuznetsov is very solid when he is expected to win, with the Russian 8-2 this year when priced between 1.20-1.49 in best of three set matches. Furthermore, he is an incredible 20-6 for covering the -3.5 game handicap line in this price range since January 2015, a line which is the main handicap line for this match.
Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation
With the value on Kuznetsov, and the historical trends overwhelming, taking the -3.5 games about the Russian, available at a current 1.91, seems a mandatory recommendation today.
Back Andrey Kuznetsov -3.5 games at 1.91
Prices correct at time of writing.
Eastbridge Sports Betting Brokerage, winners welcome!