ATP Cincinnati – Third Round – Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v Steve Johnson
Our last preview saw Peter Polansky easy past Felip Peliwo for an easy Asian handicap betting win, and we move from Challengers back to the main tour, as the US Open warm-up events continue apace.
This week’s Cincinnati Masters/Premier events are now into the third round/last 16 stage, and at around 530pm UK time, there is a solid Tennis handicap betting opportunity in the match between Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Steve Johnson.
After a woeful first few months of the campaign, Johnson has completely turned around his season, and the net result of this is that he’s developed into a very over-rated player by the market. He’s now at a career high of 22 in the world, but long-term career turnarounds by players at almost 27 years of age are very rare and I’m not convinced at all that he can maintain his progress.
Indeed, in 2016 on hard court, Johnson still only has a 10-9 record, holding serve 87.6% of the time and breaking opponents 13.2% (combined 100.8%), and this would indicate that he is severely flattered by his current ranking.
Opponent Tsonga has much better stats this year, and the Frenchman boasts a strong 10-4 record, holding 91.5% of the time, and breaking 20.7% (combined 112.2%).
This discrepancy, as well as longer term data, meant that my model priced Tsonga – currently available at around 1.65 – as value today, and the seventh seed has a superb recent record when a slight favourite in best of three set matches on hard court.
In these, Tsonga has won his last nine matches in this price range on today’s surface, showing that he’s been under-rated by the bookmakers in similar spots before, and he’s played 27 matches in his career in this price range.
Tsonga has a superb career record in these, winning 19 of the 27, and of those 19 wins, he’s covered the -2 game handicap line 16 times, with 2 pushes.
If we remove the pushes from the equation, in similar match-ups Tsonga has covered the -2 game handicap line 16/25 times (64%) – a superb win rate considering we are able to get almost even money for this line today.
Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga -2 games at 1.92
Prices correct at time of writing.
Eastbridge Sports Betting Brokerage, now UK licensed.