ATP Challenger Todi – Second Round – Ramkumar Ramanathan v Marco Cecchinato
With Wimbledon drawing to a conclusion, there are just two matches in the WTA tournament, with the two Williams sisters looking for wins to make an all-Williams final. Serena takes on Elena Vesnina as a heavy favourite whilst Venus is an underdog against Angelique Kerber.
As is usually the case in the latter stages of Grand Slams, the market is very efficient, with the ability levels of the remaining players well known to the majority of bettors, and there is no value in either women’s semi-final, based on my model.
Therefore, to find some handicap betting value, we must drop down to the Challenger Tour, and one match in the second round in the Todi Challenger, in Italy, caught my eye.
It would be reasonable to call Marco Cecchinato the ‘Darren Huckerby of the tennis world’. Fans of football around 10-15 years ago will recall the winger was frequently described as too good for the Championship, and not good enough for the Premier League, and this is a very apt comparison with Cecchinato, who has a superb record at the Challenger level, but a woeful one on the main ATP tour.
Cecchinato’s stats make it apparent that he is a flat-track bully. He is very efficient at dispatching opponents worse than him, as his 10% ROI when a favourite below 1.50 on his favoured clay illustrates.
This situation is likely to manifest itself today, with the qualifier Ramkumar Ramanathan having had little experience at this level on clay, having played eight career matches on the Challenger Tour on this surface.
Cecchinato, who is currently available at around 1.20 for the match win today, represented value on my model even at this low price, with a price of 1.07 suggested as being more appropriate.
The oddsmakers have priced Cecchinato -5 games at 1.87 and when priced below 1.50 on clay in the last 12 months, he’s covered this line on 12/22 occasions, with one push – giving him a 12-9-1 record.
If we narrow this down to a more price specific band of 1.10-1.30, he covered this line on 7/12 occasions in the last 12 months.
The two historical trends generate implied odds between 1.71 and 1.75 on this outcome, so considering this, as well as the pre-match value on the Italian in his home country, backing Cecchinato -5 games looks to be a very viable proposition today.
Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation: Marco Cecchinato -5 games at 1.87
Prices correct at the time of writing.
Eastbridge Sports Betting Brokerage best prices on Tennis and now UK licensed!