ATP Challenger Cordenons – Quarter-Final – Paolo Lorenzi v Filip Krajinovic
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga’s inability to take break points cost us yesterday in his defeat to Steve Johnson, but we move on today with a Tennis handicap betting opportunity on the clay, in the Cordenons Challenger, in Italy.
As has been mentioned previously in my Eastbridge handicap betting previews, the quarter-finals onwards of big tournaments are not superb hunting grounds for pre-match betting value seekers, with the players’ abilities being well known to bettors and bookmakers alike, hence why we have dropped down to the Challenger level this evening.
Last on court, at around 630pm UK time, Paolo Lorenzi takes on Filip Krajinovic, and my model has made the Italian, in his home country, value all week. He’s got a superb record when he drops down to the Challenger level and is 20-3 this year at that level, with titles in Canberra and Caltanisetta. It’s also with noting that Lorenzi is 38-12 in Challenger events on clay in his home country. Both of these filters generated strong return on investment percentages based on Pinnacle Sports’ closing prices.
Indeed, Lorenzi has only failed to make the semi-finals once in his last seven Challenger events, so it is obvious that he is extremely dominant when he plays the lower tour.
Opponent Krajinovic has had a mediocre year, but is often highly rated by the market. Overall, he’s accumulated a 9-6 record in Challengers this year, and this match is only his second quarter-final of a disappointing campaign (he was beaten in the final of the Rome Challenger by Kyle Edmund in his other strong week).
Just as it has all week, my model makes Lorenzi value again tonight with the market prices around the 1.55 mark – he’s been backed from just shy of 1.60 this morning already.
Handicap options focus around the -3 and -3.5 game lines for Lorenzi, and the Italian has covered the -3 game line in 19 of 22 (one was a push) best of three set wins when priced 1.50 to 1.99, going back to the start of 2013.
Based on this, it is clear that when Lorenzi wins these type of matches, he tends to cover the -3 game handicap line almost always, and it makes sense to take the bigger odds on him doing so than the outright match win odds this evening.
Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation: Paolo Lorenzi -3 games between 1.79 and 1.89
Prices correct at time of writing.
Eastbridge Sports Betting Brokerage, now UK licensed.