ATP Bastad – Second Round – Dustin Brown vs Aljaz Bedene
After the drama of Wimbledon, the ATP Tour returns back to the clay court grind and in a very low quality 250 event in Bastad, Sweden, there is a handicap betting opportunity worth exploring.
First on court at around 10am UK time, Dustin Brown takes on Aljaz Bedene with the new Brit Bedene favourite at a shade over 1.50.
My model makes this short, with a price of around 1.70 on Bedene much more appropriate. Bedene enjoys a 4.5% edge in projected hold percentages, but this isn’t enough to justify a quote of around 1.50 for this match, against the flashy and talented Brown.
It’s also worth mentioning that Bedene has built up a reputation on Tour for struggling to win matches easily – a trait that is perfect for us to exploit here.
Since the start of 2015, he’s won just seven best of three set matches from 17 in straight sets when priced as a slight favourite between 1.50 and 2.00, whilst Bedene is 6-11 for covering -3.5 games using this criteria.
Conversely, Brown has taken at least a set in 6/10 when a slight underdog in the same time period, and covered +3.5 games also six out of ten times.
Considering this data, implied odds are around 1.69 on Brown +1.5 sets and 1.59 on Brown +3.5 games, and the market is offering 1.64 and 1.76 respectively, at the time of writing.
On this basis, taking the 1.76 on Brown +3.5 games appeals much more than the 1.69 on the German taking at least a set, and the game handicap bet is today’s recommendation.
Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation: Dustin Brown +3.5 games at 1.76
Prices correct at the time of writing.
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