ATP Atlanta – Quarter-Final – John Isner v Taylor Fritz
The ATP event in Atlanta reaches the quarter-final stage this evening and, from a handicap betting perspective, the match last on court at around 1am UK time, between John Isner and Taylor Fritz, catches the eye.
Isner has a very strong dynamic in these US hard court events played in relatively fast conditions – he tends to win his matches eventually but frequently doesn’t win those matches easily.
Today’s opponent, the immensely promising 18 year old Fritz, has already generated impressive hold/break numbers on his favoured hard court, playing 13 main draw matches in the last 12 months, holding serve 83.9% of the time and breaking opponents 20.7%. Already in his young career, Fritz has taken sets from Stan Wawrinka and Roger Federer, and given this, the big-serving Isner should hold no additional fears.
Indeed, Fritz has played five matches priced over 4.00 this year, taking sets as previously mentioned against Wawrinka and Federer, and far from disgracing himself against Gilles Simon and Kei Nishikori (lost both matches 6-4 6-4).
The hold/break data meant that my model found value on Fritz, pricing him at 3.38 as opposed to the currently available 4.60, pricing Isner at 1.42 compared to the current prices around 1.28.
As a heavy favourite in the last 12 months when priced under 1.50 on hard court, Isner has played 13 best of three set matches, winning 11 of them, but dropping at least a set in seven of these.
In these, he is 7-2-4 for covering the -3 game handicap line, so it would be logical that historical tendencies for Isner favour taking the bigger price backing Fritz +1.5 sets at 2.10 as opposed to +3 games at 1.91, and this is today’s recommendation.
Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation: Taylor Fritz +1.5 sets at 2.10
Prices correct at the time of writing.
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