ATP Antwerp – Quarter Final – David Goffin vs Marius Copil
Yesterday’s recommendation of Andrey Kuznetsov against Thomaz Bellucci ended in a defeat, but we look to get back on track with another ATP match on Indoor Hard this afternoon. Today’s Eastbridge Sports Betting Broker preview comes from ATP Antwerp, with today’s handicap betting proposition coming in the match between David Goffin and Marius Copil.
Home favourite Goffin is expected to breeze through this match without much aggravation, but Copil is something of an Indoor Hard court specialist, and his strong serve is likely to keep this match close, at least.
Goffin starts the match at around 1.15, which my model made short, pricing the Belgian at 1.28. This represented around a 7% implied percentage value on Copil.
The Tournament So Far
Tournament top seed Goffin received a bye in the first round, and in the second round, toughed out a 7-5 6-4 win over the German veteran, Florian Mayer, at a similar price to today’s match.
Copil has done very well to get to this stage. A routine win in Qualifying Round one was achieved over Vaclav Safranek, before a superb win priced as a heavy underdog against the top qualifying seed, Pierre-Hugues Herbert, who is strong in these conditions.
In the main draw, Copil dropped the first set against the Indoor Hard 250 legend, Joao Sousa, before fighting back to win in the final set, and he got the better of another home favourite, Steve Darcis, in straight sets yesterday.
On hard or indoor hard in the last 12 months, Goffin is 30-16 and has held serve around average, at 78.9%. However, he excels on return, breaking opponents 27.7% of the time.
Opponent Copil has little ATP experience in the last 12 months but in his career has a solid ATP record on today’s surface, winning six of 11 matches, holding serve 87.7% of the time and breaking opponents 13.9%. This data marks him as a player that is solid at this level on the surface, and very strong on serve, indicating that he should at least be able to keep this close today.
From a much bigger sample, Copil’s numbers on Indoor Hard in Challengers were also impressive, and furthermore, he yields a high ROI on the surface based on Pinnacle closing prices – it is very likely that the markets are under-rating him indoors.
As a heavy underdog, Copil has almost always kept matches close. In seven career matches priced above 6.00, he has only lost by over five games once. Again, this is largely due to his strong serve.
This is also the case when he is slightly less of an underdog, with only a defeat to Lleyton Hewitt in Brisbane at the start of 2014 a match where he has lost by more than this margin in the last five years.
Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation
Backing Copil, with the value on the Romanian, as well as him being a very solid server, on the game handicap looks like an excellent proposition today. Given the fact that he’s historically almost always at least pushed the +5 game handicap line, taking this option makes a lot of sense this afternoon.
Back Marius Copil +5 games at 1.66
Prices correct at time of writing.
Eastbridge Sports Betting Brokerage, winners welcome!