Ok, hopefully by now some of you are getting the hint due to the same stuff I am writing every week about how underdogs are not only covering their Asian handicap betting lines, but they are winning games straight up as well.
On top of that, the unusual Premier League ‘home teams struggling to win’ trend found a second wind in week 17, with just Chelsea, Arsenal and Watford managing to claim all three points in their own backyards.
Updated stats table below, as you can see the Serie A ‘home teams wining’ trend is now regressing slowly back to expected levels.
English Premier League
On paper/at the bookies, this was one of the more even balanced Premier League weekends of the season so far, with just three odds on favourites on the coupon. With one of those three being Newcastle, who were priced up at around even money, we might as well call it just two short priced fav’s instead of three.
Of the two Chelsea magically came back to life and won comfortably enough at home against Sunderland, just days after Jose Mourinho exited stage left. But, 1.43 shots Manchester United once again proved that possession means next to nothing, if you do not create goal scoring chances with it.
United never looked likely to cover their -1.25 Asian handicap line, while Norwich kept things simple and took their chances. The 1.94 available on the Canaries to cover with their +1.25 line was an early Christmas gift considering how low scoring their hosts have been of late.
The favourites were on top in Germany last weekend, but there were still some great Asian handicap betting opportunities. Football giants Bayern Munich were priced up at just 1.21 to win on the road at struggling Hannover, which gave sharp punters an inviting looking +2 handicap line priced at 1.82.
Hannover have been very poor this season but, they had not lost by more than two goals at home and only once away. Plus, with Bayern only having two three goal victories on their travels so far it actually wasn’t such a shock that the final score was only 1-0 to the Bavarians.
The biggest upset of the round came at Koln who upset title challengers Borussia Dortmund 2-1, the home side were priced at 6.06 to win and 1.98 with a +1 Asian handicap. With Koln having lost just two of eight home matches coming into this game, they would have been confident of at least keeping it close against Dortmund.
Over in Spain there were a couple of upsets but first a special mention has to go to Real Madrid, who having fallen 2-1 behind at home to Vallecano, kicked the machine into gear and went on to obliterate them 10-2!
Needless to say that they fully covered their Asian handicap line of -2.75 without any trouble in the end.
Madrid’s local rivals, Atletico on the other hand were last weekend’s shortest priced favourites that failed to deliver. Diego Simeone’s men went down 1-0 at stubborn Malaga, when priced up at 1.72 for the win.
Malaga backers who had jumped on the +0.75 Asian handicap line were never in danger of losing their stake as Atletico struggled to impose their style on the home side & were also reduced to 10 men after 56mins of the match.
Italian football has seen a huge bias toward home team victories so far this season, the exact opposite of the Premier League trend, however the Serie A trend is slowly realigning as mentioned earlier. But, that did not stop most favourites winning last weekend.
The only short priced fav’s to come unstuck were Torino, who playing at home against Udinese were chalked up as 1.77 shots to claim all three points. They were unable to score and went down 1-0 on their own patch. Udinese had no need for their +0.75 Asian handicap, which smart punters benefitted from at 1.92.
Champions Juventus are on a great run of form at the moment but they had a tough time at tiny Carpi on Sunday. The visitors were as short as 1.36 to win the match and although they came through to win 3-2 in the end, once again it was underdog backers who were picking up winnings on the Asian handicap market.
Carpi were priced at 1.80 on the +1.5 line and they did the business for shrewd punters again last week.
Over the festive period European leagues start to take their winter breaks, but the Premier League doubles it’s efforts so I will continue with these weekly review piece’s over the next couple of weeks.
Prices correct at the time of writing.
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