The upsets keep on coming and despite sounding like a broken record, every week you can clearly see that the betting value across European football, is with the underdogs on the Asian handicap betting lines.
The big leagues are the most liquid but also the sharpest to bet on, so value is thin on the ground. However, with some research and analysis we can all profit from short term reversals in long term trends, just like we are seeing with Chelsea, Manchester United and home wins in both the Premier League and Serie A for example.
English Premier League
Another week of short odds on favourites failing to win and as a result, landing tasty Asian handicap winners for the sharp punters who backed the underdogs. After 14 games unbeaten, Spurs were aiming for a place in the top four by beating Newcastle at home.
They went off as 1.36 favourites to take all three points, which gave Newcastle a +1.5 handicap on the Asian lines. But, after going one down at White Hart Lane, Steve McClaren’s team fought back to win with a 90th minute winner and land the 1.96 that was available on the Asian handicap bet.
Another short price team that failed to win was Liverpool, the Reds went off as 1.43 hot favourites to beat West Brom, but they needed a 90th minute goal of their own to salvage a draw at Anfield. Once again the underdogs made a mockery of their +1.25 Asian handicap line and pro punters were in no danger of collecting on their 1.93 bet on the Baggies to cover.
A quick note about Leicester, who beat Chelsea 2-1 last night and were cracking value at 3.30 to win and 1.89 on the +0.25 Asian handicap line, another dog covering their handicap with ease!
German football was more predictable this week with just one short priced favourite failing to win, as 1.56 shots Wolfsburg, could not follow up their Champions League win over Manchester United, with a domestic victory.
Visitors Hamburg took the lead on 22 minutes and held on until the Wolfs equalised on 78 minutes, but the game ended 1-1 and the 1.93 Asian handicap bet on Hamburg +1 was never in real danger of losing.
Champions Bayern Munich again eased to victory, but by only winning 2-0 over Ingolstadt, when priced up at just 1.10 to win the game, left favourite backers fuming as they failed to cover their -2.25 Asian handicap line.
It’s not often that both Barcelona and Real Madrid fail to win on the same weekend (it’s happened twice in the previous 54 game weeks) in La Liga, but that is exactly what happened last weekend.
On Saturday, Barcelona became the shortest price team of the season so far, whom failed to pick up all three points when they drew 2-2 with Deportivo, despite being 1.08 shots to win the game!
Deportivo were seriously underrated in this match and despite falling 2-0 behind, they battled back to draw the game and land the 1.97 price available on their huge +2.75 Asian handicap betting line.
After Barca threw away two points on Saturday, Real Madrid went one better (or worse depending on your viewpoint) on Sunday night with a demoralising 1-0 loss at Villarreal. Rafa Benitez’s side only managed to get one shot on target during this game and his reign at the Bernabeu might not last through any more games like this.
Real were priced up as 1.68 favourites to beat the Yellow Submarine but fell behind in the first half and thanks to their off target shooting, they were unable to salvage anything from the match. Villarreal had started the game with a +0.75 Asian handicap and did not really have to do too much in the end, to land the 1.91 winner for shrewd punters.
Over in Italy there were a number of short price favourites that failed to win last weekend, the shortest price team to frustrate favourite backers were AC Milan.
Once giants of not only Italian, but European football as well, Milan have won just one Serie A title in the last ten seasons and they will not be winning it again this season either. This past weekend they hosted rock bottom, winless Verona at the San Siro.
Priced up at 1.41 to pick up all the points, the Rossoneri slumped to a 1-1 draw which gave Verona, just their seventh point of the campaign! Their Asian handicap line for this match was +1.25 and that proved to be more than enough on the day, for punters who were on at 1.90.
Struggling Lazio could only manage a draw at home against Sampdoria, even though the bookies had them chalked up as 1.45 jollies for this match. That price equated to a +1.25 Asian handicap line on the visitors and they were never in real danger of losing, which meant a comfortable winner at 1.93 for those who backed the underdogs.
Prices correct at the time of writing.
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