August 13, 2016

Arsenal v Liverpool Asian Handicap Preview – Sunday 14th August

Arsenal v Liverpool – Emirates Stadium at 16:00 live on Sky Sports 1

The second match on Super Sunday see’s the standout match of the weekend as Liverpool make the trip to London to face Arsenal at the Emirates. Both sides will be hoping to get off to a good start and will be expecting to challenge for the title this season.

This match might be coming a little too early to be as high quality that we might expect with players still not 100% match fit and with Arsenal in particular, missing players due to injury.

Arsene Wenger has real problems at the back, with Per Mertesecker out long term, Laurent Koscielny only joining training last week since returning from the Euro’s, and Gabriel picking up an injury in Sunday’s friendly with Man City. It’s got so bad that Wenger has broken character and is attempting to sign a player. The Gunners have been linked with Johnny Evans and Shkodran Mustafi.

This Sunday though, it’s likely to be Monreal alongside Chambers with Bellerin and Gibbs as full backs, facing 2016’s top scoring side (41 goals). The make-shift defence will need some protection so Elneny and Xhaka are in-line for a start. Giroud and Ozil are likely to miss this one also, like Koscielny, only resuming training recently. This leaves Arsenal with Ramsey, Cazorla, Sanchez and Walcott to carry the attacking threat.

Liverpool have their own injury worries, also in defence, with Dejan Loveren and James Milner facing late fitness tests. If Milner does start he is likely to be played at left back which is not ideal and could be susceptible to Arsenal’s pace in attack.

In midfield and attack, Liverpool are looking strong with the like of Emre Can, new signings Wijnaldum and Mane along with the quality of Coutinho and Firmino. Klopp will be hoping his side can begin how they finished last season, which is particularly important with their run of fixtures. In their first 5 matches they face Arsenal, Tottenham, Chelsea and champions Leicester.

The Reds’ record against Arsenal at the Emirates doesn’t make for good reading, winning just one of their last 7 meetings. With Arsenal’s injury woes however, Liverpool have been backed in from 3.29 to 3.10. They had an excellent pre-season and Arsenal are notoriously slow starters.

Backing Liverpool on the Asian Handicap betting market +0.25 at 1.89 offer some real value here. The Gunners have one just once in their last 6 home fixtures in August, 2 of those being against Liverpool, losing 2-0 and drawing 0-0 at the beginning of last season.

That 0-0 draw bucked the trend however, as this fixture commonly see’s goals. There has been an average of 3.75 goals per game in their last 8 meetings in all competitions. Arsenal held the 2nd lowest home goals total from the top 8 last season, but still average 1.63 goals per game. Liverpool averaged a similar number of goals on the road, 1.57 goals per game.

I expect this game to start very tight but eventually opening up. With the above stats, backing Over 2.75 goals on the Asian line at 2.12 also offers some value.

Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Liverpool +0.25 1.89 at Over 2.75 goals at 2.12

Prices correct at time of writing.

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