Almeria v Valencia – Juegos Mediterraneos at 17:30
The race for the fourth and final Champions League qualification place in La Liga has gone right down to the wire, as just one point separates Valencia in fourth and Sevilla in fifth. This type of end of season scenario is ideal for Asian handicap betting professionals who exploit any edge they can in the betting markets.
However, with Atletico Madrid still only three points ahead of Valencia and with the worse head to head record, they could still drop down to fourth place should they lose at Granada on the final day.
Should that happen, Sevilla will be left with fifth place regardless of their result away against Malaga but they would still have a chance to claim a Champions League place by winning the Europa League Final next Wednesday night in Warsaw.
Interestingly if Sevilla were to finish fifth but then go on to win the Europa League Final, their opponents this weekend Malaga could be the team that benefits, as the seventh placed side would then take up the spare Europa League qualifying place that Sevilla would no longer need.
Now all that is out of the way, who is going to win this match and more importantly where is the value to bet on?
Almeria are themselves in a titanic battle at the other end of the table, currently sitting in nineteenth place they must beat Valencia on Saturday to have any chance of avoiding the drop. Even then they still need other results to go their way or they will be playing their football in Segunda Division next term.
Unfortunately for manager Sergi Barjuan and his team their recent form does not inspire much confidence in their ability to upset visitors Valencia and escape relegation on the last day of the season.
Almeria are without a win in four and have only won two of their last ten La Liga matches. They have been harder to beat at home than away but, when facing any of the top six teams this year they have been an absolute shambles.
They have picked up just one point from the thirty three available in games played against the top six so far and in five of those games they have lost by at least two goals. To make matters even worse, they only found the net five times during those eleven matches.
Valencia on the other hand have been excellent all season long and richly deserve a Champions League spot but they still need to finish the job off by winning at Almeria on the last day.
Their record away from home is very good with just Barcelona from the teams above them in the league taking three points off Nuno Santo’s team. However, they have also had a few poor results against weaker opposition this term.
Defeats at Levante and Deportivo, along with a draw at Granada will give their hosts some slight hope going into the match but, these poor results all came within the space of a couple of months at the end of 2014. Since the turn of the year Valencia have only been beaten twice, away at both Malaga and Barcelona.
Looking at the Asian handicap betting line in this match, we can see that with the line set at 0.75 which means that Valencia would need to win by two clear goals to return a full profit if you were backing them here. However, the value is all with the hosts today and with Valencia having not won any of their last four away games, lowly Almeria can keep the game close to return us a profit.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Almeria +0.75 at 2.10
Price correct at the time of writing.
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