AIK v Ostersunds (Sunday)
The market’s opening perception of Rikard Norling’s side was evident through the implied probability of 65.78% (odds of 1.52) attached with them across the board in the early stages of March. However, in that time, we have been able to observe an easing in the market’s perceived supremacy of AIK.
Yet, that supremacy still appears vast with an implied probability of 62.11% (odds of 1.61). Observing previous performances from teams with similar implied probabilities to AIK will allow an indication to be drawn into how the market may end-up closing. So, from the previous 5,415 games in which the market had perceived the home favorite to possess an implied probability in the region between 58.82% – 66.66% (odds of 1.50 – 1.70), 3,236 of those games ended with the home side being victorious, equating to a percentage of 59.74 and odds of 1.67. As a result leaving us very little to play with, with-in the Match Odds market.
Surprisingly, when the market appears to favor a home favorite to the extent to which is evident with AIK. The supremacy within the Match Odds and Asian handicap market are evident within the Over/Under goals market. Yet, the current market has attached an implied probability of 42.37% (odds of 2.36) with the Over 2.5 goals line. Seemingly possessing plenty of wiggle room in comparison with previous markets. From the 5,415 games in which a home favorite possessed a similar implied probability as AIK, three or more goals occurred in 2,841 of those 5,415 games, resulting in an occurrence of 52.46%.
Therefore with the market currently offering 2.36 on Over 2.5 goals, it would appear folly to turn aware such an attractive price given the previous market history.
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 2.50 Goals at 2.360
Falkenbergs v Orebro (Sunday)
The current market perception attached with Hans Eklund’s side indicates an implied probability of 31.25% (odds of 3.20), which would situate the hosts within the parameters of underdogs possessing implied probabilities of between 28.57% – 33.22% (odds of 3.01 – 3.50). In the previous 5,193 games under identical market conditions, 2,574 of those games resulted in three or more goals occurring. As a result, equating to a probability of 49.56% (odds of 2.01). Hence, producing a slight edge over the current implied probability of 47.39% (odds of 2.11) on offer in the Over/Under market.
In addition to the slightly inefficient Over/Under market, the current perception of Orebro does seem rather generous. Sporting an implied probability of 41.66% (odds of 2.40), the current perception does not appear to align with previous market conditions. In the previous 5,193 games when the implied probabilities for both sides have been on offer, the traveling side has bettered their hosts in 2,339 games (45.04% or odds of 2.22).
Therefore with the market currently offering 2.11 on Over 2.5 goals and 2.40 on Orebro -0.5, it would appear we have been able to establish two positive positions within the same game.
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 2.50 Goals at 2.110
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Orebro -0.50 at 2.400
Elfsborg v Hammarby (Monday)
Hammarby, similarly with Orebro do seem rather generously priced. Possessing an implied probability of 41.66% (odds of 2.40), the current perception like that attached with Orebro does not appear to align with previous market conditions.
In the previous 5,193 games when the implied probabilities for both sides have been on offer, the traveling side has bettered their hosts in 2,339 games (45.04% or odds of 2.22).
Therefore with the market currently offering 2.40 on Hammarby -0.5 and given that the numbers are on-side, it would appear we can seal the opening round of fixtures from Allsvenskan with another positive position within the market.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Hammarby -0.50 at 2.400
Preview by: @gscurftrader