May 10, 2019

Allsvenskan Asian Handicap Previews – 13th May Monday

Eskilstuna v Falkenbergs

The two bottom sides meet on Saturday both will be trying to get 3 points out of this in what should be a close contest. Eskilstuna come into the game losing four of their previous five games, drawing one at home to Orebro. Falkenbergs are not doing any better unfortunately boasting a similar record of four defeats in five with one draw at home to Sirius.

Both teams are not in best of scoring form, Eskilstuna have managed to score three goals in their previous five and only managing eight goals so far this season. Falkenbergs have managed to score five goals in their last five games, totalling eight so far this season the exact same total as Eskilstuna.

According to the xG data for the Allsvenskan, it may appear Falkenberg may have been a little unlucky in their efforts suggesting they could have scored more. Falkenberg have a 11.53 xG for the season so far, sitting 5th in the table for xG. Eskilstuna are not far behind in 9th position, meaning also they could have had more goals this season.

Eskilstuna and Falkenbergs are generally quite defensively minded teams both playing similar formations, normally either a 4-4-2 or a 4-2-3-1. Both teams like to sit and absorb pressure playing lateral or backward passes then look to knock a long ball, which why both teams have low progressive runs and pass stats. This is likely to be the reason why both teams haven’t scored as many so far this season. With the above in mind I’m looking at this game being a closely fought contest with not many chances and goals in it.

The goal line is set at 2.50 but the line im looking at for that extra bit cover is the 2.75 goal line. Under 2.75 goals is currently priced at 1.74 currently indicating a 57.47% chance of that landing and it’s a line I like and I think it lands. Happy to take that line on, hopefully both teams play a boring game and we can land the unders.

Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Under 2.75 goals at 1.740

Ostersunds v Hacken

Ostersunds will play Hacken on Saturday at home in the Jämtkraft Arena, a game they will be hoping they can grind a result out of. Hacken will be looking to build a decent season so far winning four out of seven games. Ostersunds may struggle to against a Hacken team who have been formidable at the back only conceding 4 goals so far this season. Ostersunds are currently unbeaten at home in three games, they have won two and drawn one. I think Hacken will break that record and land a win on Saturday.

Hacken are leading the xG table in the Allsvenskan with 13.86 and 0.128 xG per shot meanwhile Ostersunds are 3rd in the xGA table conceding 12.89 and a 0.122 xG per shot against. Hacken are averaging 1.34 goals per 90 minutes so far this season and Ostersunds slightly worse at 1.21 goals per 90 minutes.

Hacken have a wealth of attacking options and two quality strikers at their disposal, these being Jeremejeff & Paulinho. Paulinho can either play left wing or up front giving a bit of flexibility to Hacken. With Jeremejeff averaging 0.59xG per 90 minutes its evident he should have scored more than 2 goals this season and Paulinho averaging 0.67xG per 90 minutes its likely one or maybe both could perhaps score against Ostersunds.

Hacken come into the game as favourites priced at 2.1, Ostersunds are priced at 3.51 and the draw around 3.59. Hacken will be looking to build on their good start to the season and put Ostersunds to the sword. The price that is currently on offer for a Hacken win represents decent value and one I’m happy to take on.

1X2 Betting Recommendation: Hacken to win at 2.100

Norrkoping v Goteborg

Norrkoping come up against an inform team on Monday when they play Goteborg, a team who have been in exciting form so far this season. Norrkoping’s recent form consists of Draws, 4 from their last 5 games have been draws with a narrow win coming at home to Falkenbergs. Goteborg on the other hand come into the game 3 wins, 1 draw & a loss in their previous 5 games, even beating last year’s champions AIK which isn’t a great feat actually so far this year as they haven’t hit the ground running.

Goteborg have a very exciting prospect upfront in Benjamin Nygren who is rated one of the best lateral attackers in the league currently, boasting 4 goals in 7 games. Quite an accomplishment for a 17-year-old I think and there will be plenty more to come from this young guy. Nygren will certainly be looking to add to his goal tally with 55.56% of his shots on target and a goal conversion rate of 44.44%. Goteborg certainly have found some form in front of goal so far this season averaging 2.18 goals per 90 minutes which is the best in the league.

Norrkoping are averaging 1.23 goals per 90 minutes so far this season, Norrkoping are side who generally operate in a 3-5-2 formation looking to keep the ball and attacking the flanks. Norrkoping look to build from the back and then switch balls wide – most of Norrkoping’s 9 goals have transitioned from wide play or free kicks.

Goteborg are an exciting attacking team and I think they have the quality to overcome Norrkoping on Monday, the bookies markets however don’t seem to agree with me. Goteborg have some of the highest stats for progressive runs, passes and touches in the box allowing them to be get into good goal scoring opportunities. I think this speaks for itself when looking at the goals they have scored this season.

Norrkoping are favourites to land the win, priced at 2.12 with Goteborg priced at 3.58 and the draw is currently around 3.65. Given that Goteborg have scored so many and played well this season and the amount of draws Norrkoping have had recently, this is really making the Goteborg +0.5 Asian Handicap line look very attractive. One I think is we can take advantage of.

Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Goteborg +0.50 at 1.810

Preview by: @JM5portsAnalyst.

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