Peru v Venezuela – Estadio Elias Figueroa, Valparaiso at 00:30 live on Premier Sports
Peru and Venezuela face each other this evening in Valparaiso in what is a surprisingly pivotal match. Group C has been thrown wide open after Venezuela beat Colombia in their opener and Brazil’s defeat at the hands of Los Cafeteros last night. In what should be a hard-fought, close game this evening, Asian Handicap betting punters can find some value in what was expected to be a match that would decide third place in the group.
Prior to the tournament, both Peru and Venezuela were seen as the minnows of their group, with the only chance of picking up any points being against each other. We were all proved wrong after Venezuela’s 1-0 win over Colombia on Sunday.
La Vinotinto’s excellent performance saw them create lots of goal scoring opportunities which led to their eventual goal. They were very disciplined and played with a high line always pressing the Colombian’s and could have won by more than the single goal. They were also very strong defensively, killing off a front line that looked like it could out score any opponent going in to the tournament.
The semi finalist from 4 years ago look to have improved and will go against Peru seeking revenge for their 4-1 defeat in the 2011 third place play-off.
Despite losing to Brazil, thanks to conceding a last minute winner, Peru looked good in their opening match, enjoying more possession than expected.They looked intelligent with the ball and created a number of goal scoring opportunities. Their goal was a little fortuitous, thanks to a mix up with David Luiz and goalkeeper Jefferson, but it was nothing more than they deserved.
After the Brazilians equalised, Los Incas still maintained their performance and kept looking for a winner. Their aggressiveness did leave them vulnerable at the back and they eventually paid the price, however there are a lot of positive to take from the game.
A loss for Peru tonight will mean they have to beat Colombia in their final match to qualify. A win for Venezuela will put them top of the group and will assure them at least 3rd place which will all but see them qualify for the quarter finals.
The two side have met each other twice since the last Copa America with one win a piece. Their last 4 meetings has seen 17 goals and each one Over 2.5 which you can back at 2.4 if you fancy the trend to continue. Bear in mind however, that only 4 of this tournaments 11 matches have seen 3 or more goals.
This match really is a tough one to call and the prices look about right to me with nothing really standing out value-wise on the Asian Handicap betting market. Despite Venezuela’s impressive performance against Colombia, I think Peru just have the edge here and history is on their side as well.
Backing Peru +/- 0 (Draw No Bet), isn’t the most exciting bet in the world but one I think will not lose and has a good chance of being profitable at 1.97.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Peru 0 (Draw No Bet) at 1.97
Prices correct at time of writing.
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