Man Utd v West Ham – Old Trafford at 20:00 live on Sky Sports 1
My last recommendation was a winner, despite Arsenal leaving it late to cover their -1.25 Asian Handicap line against Bournemouth in the Premier League. I now turn my attention to the quarter-finals of the EFL Cup, as Manchester United host West Ham for the second time in 4 days.
Man United welcome West Ham to Old Trafford again on Wednesday.
Last Sunday both sides faced each other in a Premier League clash, with the home side going 1-0 down through Diafra Sakho just 2 minutes into the game. Zlatan Ibrahimovic equalised 20 minutes later however and the final score finished 1-1.
The Red Devils may be 9 games unbeaten at home across all competitions, but they’ve only managed 1 victory in their last 4 games at Old Trafford, which came against Feyenoord last Thursday.
Against the Eredivisie leaders, Man United won 4-0 in a Europa League tie and looked pretty impressive. Failure to beat a struggling West Ham on home soil a few days later however, really sums up their season so far – a lack of consistency.
Although United have only lost against Manchester City at home this campaign (2-1 Premier League defeat), recently their form at Old Trafford has dipped and they’ve drawn 3 out of their last 4 games.
At this early stage of the season, Man United already find themselves adrift from the Premier League title race, 11 points off Chelsea in top spot.
The Red Devils have lost just 2 of their last 24 home games against West Ham and they are as short as 1.40 to get the victory on Wednesday.
Paul Pogba and Marouane Fellaini are both suspended and if you also take into account United’s defensive problems, a win for Mourinho’s men is by no means a guarantee.
The Hammers have had a disappointing 4 months in light of their heroics in the Premier League last season.
Last campaign West Ham finished 7th in the league, but Slaven Bilic’s side are struggling this time round and are only 1 point off the relegation zone.
West Ham have only won 1 of their last 9 away games across all competitions (1-0 Premier League victory over Crystal Palace) and out of those 9 games, Bilic’s men have lost 6.
A positive result against United, albeit in the EFL Cup, will certainly give the London side a much needed confidence boost.
Despite their poor away form this campaign, West Ham have scored in 8 of their last 9 away games, with 57% of their goals being scored away from home this season.
West Ham may be finding the net on the road, but defensively they’re a shambles!
On their travels, The Hammers have let in 13 goals in their last 6 away games and they’ve conceded 62% of their goals away from the London Stadium this campaign.
Asian Handicap and Total Goals
Man United’s Asian Handicap line for this fixture is set at -1.25 to return even money and based on their current form, I do not make this value.
In regards to the Asian Total Goals market, Mourinho’s side have seen just 4 of their 11 home games this season feature 3 goals or more and with the line set at over 2.75 goals at 1.87, I am not convinced this is value either.
West Ham’s side of the Asian Handicap market is more of an appeal.
Manchester United have now conceded in 4 of their last 5 games across all competitions and as they are still without the key defensive partnership of Eric Bailly and Chris Smalling, West Ham have a decent chance of getting on the scoresheet. The absence of Pogba is an added bonus!
In addition, the away team will want to give their fans something to cheer about and a place in the EFL Cup semi-finals will certainly being some much needed excitement to the streets of East London.
Taking all this into account, I recommend backing West Ham +1.25 on the Asian Handicap market.
Asian Handicap Recommendation: West Ham +1.25 @ 1.94
Prices correct at time of writing.
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