Marseille v Caen – Orange Vélodrome at 16:00 live at BT Sport
Marseille produced an abominable effort last Sunday when going down 3-0 at high-flying Lille. Les Phoceens were without banned centre-half Duje Caleta-Car, full-back Jordan Amavi, as well as injured Adil Rami, and so had to field a centre-back partnership between Luiz Gustavo and youngster Boubacar Kamara.
The visitors never managed to find their groove and were eventually picked off comfortably after the interval. Rudi Garcia’s group have now lost three of their opening eight Ligue 1 encounters, piling the pressure on the current boss to turn the tide, with league leaders PSG already 11 points ahead.
A response should be imminent from a L’OM squad packed with quality and the Cote d’Azur club will be hoping to make amends when tackling the Europa League on Thursday night. Marseille then gets the opportunity to impress when returning to their Stade Velodrome base for a league meeting with Caen on Sunday.
Goals present great value
Les Phoceens boast a 25/47 (68%) winning home record under Garcia in Ligue 1 action but the prices on offer reflect their likely dominance in this contest. However, there is value to be scooped up in the goals markets where Over 2.5 Goals is trading at 1.67 – a touch on the short side, but still a great value.
The hosts have shipped at least two goals in six of their eight Ligue 1 games already this campaign and have seen the Over 2.5 Goals barrier beaten in all eight of those outings. In fact, Marseille’s domestic matches are averaging a barely believable 4.38 goals-per-game in 2018/19.
Overall, a huge 23/37 (62%) of home L’OM games under Rudi Garcia have seen this bet collect, while Stade Velodrome meetings with bottom-half teams under the current boss have averaged 3.24 goals-per-game before the start of this season so there’s plenty of evidence to suggest this could be a high-scoring duel.
Caen unlikely to threaten for top honours
Caen have only failed to score once this season – away at runaway table-toppers PSG on the opening weekend – and have settled into mid-table after a run of W2-D4-L2. Half of those fixtures featured Over 2.5 Goals, whilst only one showdown failed to produce at least two goals.
The guests have seen all four contests with top-half teams provide profit in this market but SMC are unlikely to pile more misery on the home side if their early season performances are anything to go by. Caen are returning just a 31% Expected Goals from open play ratio thus far, a divisional low.
Combine the visitors’ average match xG from open play total with Marseille’s and we have a chunky 2.70 figure, suggesting there’s definite juice in backing a goal-heavy game in France on Sunday afternoon.
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 2.50 goals at 1.670
Preview by: @MarkOHaire.