Inter Milan v Fiorentina – San Siro at 20:00 live on BT Sport 1
It’s been a rollercoaster week for Inter Milan and new head coach Stefano Pioli. The ex-Lazio boss saw the Nerazzurri pinch a last-gasp point in the Derby della Madonnina against bitter rivals AC last weekend before an embarrassing Europa League exit on Thursday.
Pioli – Inter’s 10th manager to be employed by the Nerazzurri following Jose Mourinho’s departure six-and-a-half years after lifting the Champions League trophy – can’t be blamed for the failure to progress on the continental stage but the 51 year-old wasn’t impressed with their game-management in midweek.
The Nerazzurri cruised into a 2-0 lead against Hapoel Be’er Sheva 2-0 in Israel but humiliatingly fell to a 3-2 loss thanks to a stoppage-time goal. To make matters worse, Gary Medel has undergone surgery on his torn meniscus leaving Pioli with few options for replacing out-of-sorts Jeison Murillo at centre-back.
Same again from Inter
Bar Medel, Inter appear likely to field the same system and personnel that claimed a point in last weekend’s derby. The exciting Joao Mario looks set to play in support of Mauro Icardi, whilst Ivan Perisic will continue in the XI meaning Ever Banega will again start from the bench.
Inter have struck four goals across their first two fixtures with the side looking more dynamic and decisive in the offensive third under Pioli. But with a tally of just two clean sheets to their name this term, it’s hard to foresee the hosts shutting Fiorentina out at the San Siro.
Goals on the agenda
With that in mind, Over 2.5 Goals immediately stands out at 1.89. There have been at least three strikes in six of Inter’s last seven matches and also in six of Fiorentina’s last seven on the road. Furthermore, seven of the last eight meetings between these two have thrown up at least three match goals.
What’s more, 14/25 (56%) of Fiorentina’s road trips since the start of last season have collected in the Over 2.5 Goals market with 15 (60%) paying-out for Both Teams To Score punters. Inter have followed suit with 13 (52%) games breaking the two-goal barrier and 14 (56%) rewarding BTTS backers at home.
Fiorentina the Asian Handicap value
The hosts do boast a healthy return of 10 league triumphs from their past 14 at San Siro but their recent form – two victories in seven Serie A dates (W2-D2-L3) – and W3-D2-L1 efforts at home make the Asian Handicap prices on he Nerazzurri a little off-putting.
Instead, support La Viola at 1.86 off a +0.50 start on the Asian Handicap betting line. The Florence visitors have claimed three victories on the spin during their Serie A travels and completed the double over Inter in last season’s action.
Sure, Paolo Sousa’s men suffered a shock 3-2 defeat at home to PAOK on Thursday but the Portuguese boss rested and rotated his troops and has a clean bill of health for the trip to Milan. Nikola Kalinic will return to the starting XI.
A clash of styles
The visitors draw more games than they would like – which has often been a fault of Sousa sides, offering possession without much in the way of penetration – but they have lost only twice this season and lie eighth with a game in-hand. Having already scored in all of their away days, I’m happy to keep them onside here.
Monday’s match is likely to be a real clash of styles between the coaches. Sousa will look to dominate the ball, whereas Pioli will be looking to use the flanks to get at La Viola, much in the same way they did against Milan. Ultimately, it should be an enjoyable encounter, which should fall Fiorentina’s way.
Asian Handicap Recommendations: Fiorentina +0.5 at 1.86 & Over 2.5 Goals at 1.89
Prices correct at time of writing.
Join Eastbridge Soccer Betting Broker for the best prices and liquidity on football.